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For Communist PartyGDPYour browser does not support the element. leaders, Donald Trump’s electoral success confirms their deepest prejudices about the decline of America and the decadence of its democracy. Towards the end of Mr Trump’s first term, Chinese officials privately shared their judgment that he did not know much about the world—and that all he really cared about were his own interests. They ascribed his victory in 2016 to populism, driven by inequality and the heartlessness of American society. His re-election is unlikely to shake those views.The challenge facing China’s rulers is to take advantage of Mr Trump’s comeback, while avoiding the dangers of a second Trump administration. For Xi Jinping, China’s all-controlling, risk-obsessed leader, the uncertainties will begin on Mr Trump’s first day back in the Oval Office.If campaign promises are any guide, the next president could mark his return to Washington by announcing steep tariffs on imports from any country that runs a trade surplus with America. China, in particular, is a target. Its slowing economy can ill afford the 60% levy that Mr Trump threatens to impose on Chinese goods. But China will see a chance to divide the West if he also .A cleaner Chinese win might follow if Mr Trump carries through on another campaign pledge—to . Were he to take the advice of his running mate, J.D. Vance, it would probably be a peace deal on harsh, Russia-friendly terms. Officials in Beijing would be delighted if Mr Trump abandons Ukraine, says a national-security expert at a state-run Chinese think-tank, pointing to the assurances of enduring support from President Joe Biden. China would not hesitate to drive a wedge between America and its treaty allies in Europe and Asia, telling them that American promises are worth nothing.Above all, China would see a golden opportunity to undermine morale in Taiwan, the democratic island of 23m people which China claims. “We can tell the Taiwanese people, you can’t count on the Americans,” says the scholar. Long-standing American policy is deliberately ambiguous when it comes to the defence of Taiwan. Mr Biden has muddled that message by saying that it would enjoy American support if attacked by China. For his own part, Mr Trump declines to say whether he would use American forces to defend the island. But during this year’s election campaign, he asserted that Taiwan should pay America to defend it and grumbled that the island’s world-class semiconductor industry “took all of our chip business”. As so often with Mr Trump, his inconsistency cuts both ways. During his first term in office, he shocked hawkish advisers by privately scoffing at Taiwan’s importance. But in pursuit of leverage he also allowed the hawks to stage public shows of support. American warships sailed more often through the Taiwan Strait and his administration approved more arms sales to the island. On the campaign trail, Mr Trump said that Taiwan should spend four times more on defence than it does now, committing as much as 10% of its to its armed forces. That line is as unwelcome and alarming to leaders in Beijing as it is to politicians in Taiwan.In Washington it is often said that personnel is policy. China is no less obsessed with staffing decisions in the next Trump administration. Particular Chinese dismay would be provoked by any return for Mike Pompeo, who as secretary of state gave a speech at the Nixon Library, seeming to call on China’s people to rise up against Communist Party rule, and who since leaving office has endorsed Taiwanese independence. If Robert Lighthizer, America’s trade representative in Mr Trump’s first term and a big believer in tariffs, were to return in some capacity, Chinese counterparts would read that as a signal that America is bent on economic decoupling. Cabinet posts for Communist Party-loathing senators, such as Tom Cotton or Marco Rubio, would inspire alarm in Beijing.Chinese national-security scholars debate whether Mr Trump would be forced into a hardline posture by China hawks this time round. Some dream that the New York businessman might be tempted to strike a grand bargain with Mr Xi, a leader whom Mr Trump has praised as “brilliant” for ruling China with an “iron fist”. Former officials from the first Trump administration caution that, while the president-elect is indeed untroubled by Mr Xi’s autocratic ways, he sets great store by his reputation as a dealmaker, and would expect extraordinary concessions from China to reach any sort of long-term accommodation.For decades China has sought out American business leaders to counsel presidents to be pragmatic and focus on profitable coexistence. Towards the end of Mr Trump’s first term, many of China’s cheerleaders on Wall Street and elsewhere had lost influence in the Oval Office. Officials in Beijing may be hoping that Elon Musk, whose Tesla car company is heavily invested in China, will play a helpful role during Mr Trump’s second term.Broadly, however, China’s leaders are resigned to economic decoupling. As business ties weaken, the bilateral relationship increasingly resembles a purely geopolitical contest. In that vein, China sees ways to take advantage of Mr Trump’s unilateralism and his hostility to the United Nations and other international organisations. China already portrays itself as a model and natural leader for developing countries, bringing investments and infrastructure to Africa, Asia and Latin America. Whether accusing Mr Biden of having a pro-Israel bias in the Gaza conflict or chiding his administration for erecting trade barriers to Chinese green technology, China has cast America as a selfish bully. Such condemnations will only grow louder once Mr Trump is back in office.In truth, however, China has much to lose from Mr Trump’s “America First” policies. To pick just one example, China wants to decarbonise its economy but needs America to move in parallel, so that China is not alone in absorbing the costs of a green transition. Mr Trump, who has called climate change a “hoax”, shows no interest in co-operating. On it and many other issues, his return is a propaganda win for China, but a real-world dilemma.
