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ONE OF THEGMGMYour browser does not support the element. many legacies of Donald Trump’s first trade war with China is that pigs in the country now have a more varied diet. In response to Mr Trump’s tariffs on Chinese goods in 2018, China imposed a 25% levy on American farm products. That included soyabeans, which China uses for protein in animal feed. Much of the levy was waived in 2019, but the damage was done. When Mr Trump’s first term began, some 40% of China’s soyabean imports came from America. As he prepares for his second, only 18% do.Officials in Beijing think that number is still too high. They have been obsessed with food security ever since Mao Zedong’s policies led to a famine in the 1950s. The Communist Party believes its legitimacy rests in part on securing affordable food for the masses. Couple that with the country’s insatiable appetite for pork and the importance of soyabeans becomes clear. China uses over 110m tonnes of them every year, of which 80% are imported. They are a dangerous “choke-point” for the food supply, say state media.Mr Trump’s threat of a new trade war puts China’s leaders in a tricky spot. America’s president-elect has talked of imposing tariffs of 60% on Chinese goods. Even if he settles on lower levies, China will feel the need to respond. American soyabeans are an obvious target. Even today, about half of them go to China, bringing in $15bn for American farmers in 2023. If China slapped tariffs on them it would cause pain in places like Iowa, but it would also make it more expensive for China to feed its pigs, pushing up the price of pork.In the longer term, Chinese officials are trying to further reduce their reliance on American soyabeans. One way they are doing this is by strengthening China’s trade links with Latin America. No country sends more soyabeans to China than (see chart). As Mr Trump returns to the White House, the two are drawing closer. Meanwhile, it is hoped that a China-backed megaport in Peru will cut shipping times and open new lines of trade between Latin America and China. China’s leader, Xi Jinping, was on hand to inaugurate the port on November 14th.Back at home, China’s farmers are being offered big subsidies to grow soyabeans. And, despite public suspicion of genetically modified () crops, since 2021 some farmers have been allowed to plant soyabeans. Such efforts have helped China increase its annual production of soyabeans from 15m tonnes to 20m over the past five years. On the demand side, a number of farmers are trimming the soyabean content of pig feed or using alternative sources of protein. Then there are the fur farmers of Shandong province, who are experimenting with feeding minks and foxes the processed carcasses of skinned animals, rather than soyabeans.China’s labs might provide the ultimate solution. In January a team at the Tianjin Institute of Industrial Biotechnology said they had synthesised proteins suitable for animal feed. The process was fuelled by methanol, a chemical which the scientists had derived from coal. The final product, they claimed, was made cheaply enough to be competitive with soyabeans. If it all works at scale, it will be a game-changer. China lacks farmland, but it has lots of coal. And pigs are not fussy eaters.
