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Donald Trump’sNAFTA), NAFTAUSMCAGDPUSMCA, GDPUSMCAUSCMA USMCA USMCA. MAGAYour browser does not support the element. time as president of the United States was difficult for Mexico. He threatened tariffs to force it to keep migrants on its side of the border while their asylum claims in the United States were processed, a policy known as Remain in Mexico. He tore up the North American Free Trade Agreement (which was crucial to Mexican prosperity.But Mr Trump also dealt in bluster. He applied tariffs only to Mexican steel and aluminium, and just for a year. He did not make Mexico pay for a border wall. was replaced by the (), a new trade deal widely viewed as an improvement. The trade war with China made Mexico relatively more attractive to global capital. And by giving Mexico control over border-crossing numbers, Remain in Mexico gave it leverage with the United States.If voters put Mr Trump back in the White House on November 5th, he will be much harder to manage. His remarks about Mexico on the campaign trail have been numerous, vague and changeable, but it is clear that he and his political allies see the country as “a problem rather than a solution”, says Pamela Starr of the University of Southern California. On the most important issues—trade, migration and security—Mr Trump’s position has hardened since he left office in 2021.Start with trade. Mr Trump does not like trade deficits and says “tariff” is the “most beautiful word”. So it worries many in Mexico that the United States’ increased by $22bn to $152bn in 2023 (see chart 1). Only with China does it have a larger deficit. Exports across the northern border are worth about a third of Mexican . Mr Trump’s stated plan to impose a tariff of 10% on all imports would not just break it would also shave at least 1.5% off Mexico’s , according to Capital Economics, a research outfit in London.Mr Trump wants to turn a review of in 2026, which had been considered a formality, into a renegotiation. Ending or undermining the deal would put a vast dent in North American economic integration. Many question whether Mr Trump would dismantle a deal which he himself struck—and described as “very good”. But he has always said he would prefer no trade deal at all.Migration is no less fraught. Mexico already deals with a large number of migrants; Mr Trump’s policies would increase that burden. He is likely to demand that Mexico declare itself a “safe third country”. Non-Mexican migrants heading for the United States would then be legally required to seek asylum in Mexico instead. Mexico will refuse, leading Mr Trump to unilaterally reimpose his Remain in Mexico policy, which will also increase the number of migrants in Mexico.Mr Trump says he will close many legal immigration pathways. Much more dramatic is his proposal to deport millions of the estimated 11m-plus people in the United States who entered illegally. About half are Mexican. Absorbing a large number of deportees (and losing the billions of dollars they send in remittances) would be a huge challenge for Mexico.Even that is mild compared with Mr Trump’s musings on the security issues emerging from Mexico, specifically the production of fentanyl, a synthetic opioid which killed around 75,000 people in the United States last year (see chart 2). During his first term Mr Trump floated the idea of and their laboratories in Mexico. He and other Republicans still regularly refer to the possibility.“I think the bombing stuff is campaign rhetoric,” says Jorge Castañeda, a former Mexican foreign minister. “But not the ‘if you can’t do it, we will’ sentiment, because Mexico clearly can’t handle this alone.” Even if the Drug Enforcement Administration merely became more aggressive, it could threaten security co-operation, already weakened after the presidency of Andrés Manuel López Obrador. Claudia Sheinbaum, who took over on October 1st, is likely to be more amenable, but says co-operation must benefit both countries.Mexican officials say they have been parsing Mr Trump’s campaign statements, working out their red lines and areas where negotiation might be possible. A unilateral strike inside Mexican territory, for instance, would “detonate the bilateral security relationship”, says one Mexican official. Putting tariffs on vehicles that meet the rules of origin or attempting to force Mexico to become a “safe third country” are both unacceptable.Responses are being prepared in other areas. Some are new domestic policies that can be presented as mutually beneficial, such as Ms Sheinbaum’s plan to tackle drug gangs. On trade, Mexico has already started working with the United States to ensure that it does not become a conduit through which Chinese aluminium and steel can bypass tariffs.Yet Mexico is not as worried as it should be about Mr Trump, says another Mexican official. Some feel they know how to handle him, and suggest Kamala Harris could be as much trouble on trade. (She voted against and has protectionist tendencies, but is not in Mr Trump’s league.) Optimists say the countries’ interdependence will curb stupidity, such as scrapping That would be the “nuclear option assuring mutual economic destruction”, says another official.But the damage done to Mexico would be far greater than to its northern neighbour. Its economy is sluggish thanks to high public spending and self-imposed barriers to foreign investment. The Mexican economy relies on consumers in the United States far more than the United States economy relies on production or anything else in Mexico.One Mexican official warns that his country could be used as a if Mr Trump needs a quick win. Moderating forces that restrained the president the first time—officials like Mike Pence and Mike Pompeo—may be replaced by diehards. Mr Trump, who likes right-wing men, may struggle to work with Ms Sheinbaum, a left-wing woman. Set free from previous constraints, Mr Trump’s capricious nature combined with the United States’ relative strength would place Mexico in peril.
