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THE TRADE USUSCKCKYour browser does not support the element.war between the United States and Colombia on January 26th was over within a day—about the same time it took Teddy Roosevelt’s gunboats to engineer the secession of Panama from Colombia in 1903 as the prelude to digging the Panama Canal. Now, as then, force won. Colombia stopped resisting President Donald Trump’s deportation of its unwanted nationals. But America First bullying may yet provoke a backlash.The row casts a pall over the first trip abroad by Marco Rubio, the new secretary of state. He will begin a five-country tour of Central America and the Caribbean on January 31st. A son of Cuban immigrants, he hopes to project a new American focus on Latin America. He speaks of “partnership and co-operation” to tackle mass migration, drug smuggling, autocracy and Chinese encroachment. Meanwhile, his boss is domineering with leaders who displease him and talks of imperial expansion in the western hemisphere. Latin Americans may feel they are trading decades of benign neglect for an insistence that the United States will get what it wants, whatever the cost.Mr Trump has threatened to impose 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada; refused to rule out the use of force to retake the Panama Canal; declared Mexican drug gangs to be “foreign terrorist organisations”, with an implied option to use military force against them; suggested Canada should be absorbed by the United States through “economic force”; and revived his bid to buy Greenland from Denmark.The bust-up with Colombia marks a warning to those who would oppose him. Mr Trump had vowed to “repel the disastrous invasion of our country”. As soon as he took office, law-enforcement agencies started rounding up unauthorised migrants and loading them with fettered hands onto military planes to be deported.This offended Colombia’s president, Gustavo Petro. Though his country had long accepted deportees, at 3:41am on January 26th he posted a bombshell on X, the social-media platform: “The cannot treat Colombian migrants as criminals. I deny the entry of American planes carrying Colombian migrants into our territory.” In the early afternoon a furious Mr Trump announced immediate retribution, including 25% tariffs rising to 50% in future on all imports from Colombia and a travel ban on Colombian officials coming to the United States. Mr Petro responded with matching tariffs and social-media ripostes, including an impulsive, rambling message accusing Mr Trump of being a “slaver” and of seeking to overthrow or kill him.Cooler heads then prevailed. Around 10.30pm the White House announced that the crisis had been resolved and sanctions suspended after Colombia had “agreed to all of President Trump’s terms”. That was not quite true. On January 28th deportees began returning—in Colombian military planes, not American ones, and with their hands unshackled.Mr Petro claims a moral victory. To many Colombians he was reckless, risking his country’s prosperity. The United States is its biggest market, importing oil, coffee and cut flowers. With Valentine’s Day approaching, producers risked losing the best seasonal sale of their blooms.And regionally, he is on his own. Brazil objected to the “degrading” treatment of deportees, but did not turn back planes. Honduras called an emergency summit of Latin American and Caribbean states to discuss migration. Its president, Xiomara Castro, had earlier threatened to expel American troops from the Soto Cano air base in response to mass deportations. But the summit was cancelled on January 29th after no leaders other than Mr Petro confirmed their attendance.Claudia Sheinbaum, Mexico’s president, was explicit that she would not attend. Her country has the region’s closest and most complex relationship with the United States, which takes nearly four-fifths of its exports and is home to about 37m people of Mexican origin. More than 2m migrants of many nationalities are caught illegally crossing the common border into the United States every year.Strangely, Mr Rubio is skipping Mexico; perhaps it is a matter for Mr Trump himself. Instead he will visit smaller countries: El Salvador, Panama, Costa Rica, Guatemala and the Dominican Republic. He will be looking for “low-hanging fruit”, says Andrew Selee of the Migration Policy Institute, a think-tank in Washington, starting with an assurance that they will take back their deported nationals with no fuss à la Petro.In El Salvador and Guatemala he will also seek to restore “safe-third-country” agreements signed in Mr Trump’s first term and rescinded in Joe Biden’s. These would let the United States divert arriving migrants to apply for asylum in those two countries instead. Mr Rubio also wants Central American countries to push back migrants more resolutely. The numbers crossing the Darién Gap, a tract of jungle between Colombia and Panama, have fallen as Panama has tightened controls.Panama City will be Mr Rubio’s most awkward stop. Panama’s president, José Raúl Mulino, is staunchly pro-American, but is under attack from Mr Trump, who says the canal should never have been ceded to Panama, claims that Panama has violated its promise of neutrality and has been overcharging American ships. He also claims that China controls the canal through Hutchison, a conglomerate based in Hong Kong which runs ports at either end of it. “We didn’t give it to China. We gave it to Panama, and we’re taking it back,” said Mr Trump at his inauguration.Mr Rubio may have to explain what Mr Trump means by “taking it back”. His refusal to rule out force has reawakened the ghosts of the American invasion of Panama in 1989 to oust the country’s strongman, Manuel Noriega. Perhaps, some Panamanian officials suggest, Mr Trump can be appeased if a current audit turns up a pretext to kick Hutchison out. Or perhaps the auction system for passage through the canal, which raises the price when water levels are low, can be reviewed. Taiwan could be allowed to open a semi-official office in Panama, which would infuriate China. Panama switched its recognition from Taiwan to China in 2017.But as countries closer to the United States seek an accommodation, those farther away may hedge their bets by forging closer ties with China. That is not the only danger facing Mr Trump. His return to a policy of tightening political and economic pressure on regional foes such Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela may push more migrants towards America’s southern border. His suspension of American foreign aid, pending a 90-day review, could damage co-operation on counter-narcotics.Roosevelt counselled speaking softly and carrying a big stick. Mr Trump speaks loudly. During the Trump-Petro social-media storm, China’s ambassador in Bogotá also took to X, with a message of his own: China’s relations with Colombia were at their “best moment” in 45 years.
