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How do youUSMCAUSMCAYour browser does not support the element. handle an ally, neighbour and trade partner who promises to slap you with tariffs? That is the question facing Mexico and Canada after Donald Trump took to social media on November 25th and pledged—for the first time as president-elect of the United States—to on both countries on his first day in power. He said the tariffs would be in place until both fentanyl, a potent synthetic opioid, and irregular migrants stopped coming into the United States across either border. If he follows through it will cause huge economic damage, and destroy the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (), the free-trade deal to which all three countries are party.The leaders of Mexico and Canada responded quickly, and in different ways. Justin Trudeau, Canada’s prime minister, jumped on the phone to Mr Trump to chat about the “intense and effective connections” between their countries. His deputy, Chrystia Freeland, released a statement about the importance of border security.Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum took a harder line. She read out a letter to Mr Trump at her daily press conference, warning him that Mexico would meet tariffs with tariffs. She said this would hurt firms like General Motors, which make cars in Mexico for export to the United States. She also said Mexico had already reduced the flow of migrants to the border and is working on tackling fentanyl (consumers of which, she noted, are in the United States). She added that Mexico suffers from the southern flow of American guns into the hands of gang members, which the United States does little to stem.This more aggressive tack may signal exasperation in Mexico City. Officials had hoped that rational thinking would prevail, and that Mr Trump would back away from such destructive acts. Many are reluctant to bend the knee. It is “crazy” to apply tariffs to your closest trade partners, says one Mexican official. The idea that Mexico should adapt its position to something that does not make sense is frustrating.But that is what Mexican and Canadian officials realise they must do. A trade war would do far more harm to their countries than it would to the United States. Some 83% of Mexico’s goods exports and 77% of Canada’s go to the United States. Another Mexican official says the threat marks the start of a “serious negotiation”. And indeed, in a phone call on November 27th, Mr Trump and Ms Sheinbaum seemed to strike a conciliatory note. Both agreed that the movement of migrants through Mexico to the border would be curbed. Mr Trump called the conversation “wonderful”.Mexican officials have been offering two arguments to try and ward off tariffs. The first is that the United States needs Mexico if it is to decouple from China while remaining the pre-eminent global economic power. The second is an offer to unpick any Chinese integration into supply chains in Mexico that has already happened, by substituting imports. Sensible ideas they may be, but Mr Trump probably wants something more tangible and immediate: a large number of Mexican soldiers deployed to stop flows of migrants and fentanyl in their tracks.Canadian officials, meanwhile, are outraged at being lumped in with Mexico. Marc Miller, Canada’s immigration minister, points out that the number of migrants who illegally cross from Canada into the United States in a year is equivalent to the number crossing the Mexican border on “a significant weekend”. Earlier in November the country’s politicians tried to inoculate themselves against Mr Trump’s aggression by criticising Mexico themselves. Doug Ford, the populist premier of Ontario, called for Mexico to be kicked out of . Ms Freeland then said she shared the United States’ concerns about whether Mexico was “aligned” with Canada and the United States on trade with China.Throwing Mexico under the bus didn’t work. Officials in both countries must now work hard, probably hand-in-hand, if they are to halt Mr Trump’s harmful plans.
