Loading
MIKE JOHNSONMAGAUS Your browser does not support the element., the speaker of the House of Representatives, became all but guaranteed to keep his job for another two years after receiving Donald Trump’s backing on November 13th. Yet Mr Trump conspicuously withheld an endorsement in another congressional leadership contest the same day, and Senate Republicans elected John Thune as their next majority leader. The South Dakotan now has the unenviable task of managing a busy legislative schedule while also trying to reconcile the demands of his own caucus, an unruly lower chamber and an emboldened and mercurial president.Mr Thune won the three-way contest against Rick Scott, a Floridian favoured by the party’s wing, and John Cornyn, a Texan who preceded Mr Thune as deputy to Mitch McConnell, the Republicans’ outgoing Senate leader. Elon Musk and other Trump-aligned influencers publicly pressed senators to support Mr Scott, who argued that he was more loyal to Mr Trump, but he was still eliminated in the first round after winning only 13 votes. “They clearly don’t enjoy being lobbied by people like Elon Musk,” says Laura Blessing, a fellow at Georgetown University.Even if Mr Trump did privately prefer the more sycophantic Mr Scott, he risked looking weak if his endorsement proved unable to sway the election. It also helped that Mr Thune had spent months patching things up with Mr Trump following years of tension after his 2020 loss. That is evidence of a kind of political acumen developed after nearly 30 years in Washington.Mr Thune, 63, arrived on Capitol Hill in 1997 to serve as South Dakota’s only House member. He came to prominence in 2004 by narrowly defeating Tom Daschle, then-leader of the Senate Democrats. Mr Thune steadily climbed the ranks of leadership under Mr McConnell. That close association with the longest-serving party leader in the Senate’s history—who himself made no secret of his contempt for Mr Trump—made the party’s right wing sceptical. But as a prolific fundraiser and campaigner for his fellow senators, Mr Thune developed the relationships needed to overcome outside concerns.Mr Thune represents a soft transition out of the McConnell era, but that doesn’t mean he is not conservative. During Mr Trump’s first term, the new leader voted with the president 91% of the time. Expect a continuation of Mr McConnell’s hardball tactics on nominating and approving conservatives to America’s judiciary. Asked after his victory whether he would keep the filibuster for legislation—which requires 60 votes to pass major bills in the 100-seat chamber—Mr Thune simply replied “yes”. Even with that constraint, Congress still has a robust legislative agenda.Mr Trump would like to pass an extension and modification of the 2017 tax cuts during his first 100 days in office. The next Congress will also have to pass a government-funding bill and grapple with how much to increase defence spending. With an expected 53 senators in the 100-seat body, Republicans have some room to manoeuvre; but a slim majority in the House of Representatives instantly complicates lawmaking, even with Mr Trump’s presence imposing some discipline.All three candidates vowed at least modest changes to the legislative process. But allowing more votes on amendments and returning power to the rank-and-file is easier said than done. The first order of business will be approving Mr Trump’s cabinet. The president-elect pre-emptively declared that he wanted Republicans to embrace “recess appointments”, which temporarily allow nominees to take their positions without the Senate’s consent. Mr Thune has committed to quickly approving Mr Trump’s nominees in general terms. Given the procedural difficulties—allowing for recess appointments would mean shutting down other legislative progress—it would be easier to simply get 50 senators to vote for a nominee. That seems like a longshot for a nominee such as Matt Gaetz as attorney-general. Whether Mr Thune stands up against Mr Trump and for the Senate could have consequences that echo far beyond the next four years.
