Exploiting disarray in Syria, Israel grabs more of the Golan Heights

THE ROWHTSHTSHTS of square grey forts slung across the horizon is a reminder of the days when Israel prepared for an onslaught by Syrian armoured divisions from the Golan Heights. That last happened in the Yom Kippur War, in 1973, when the Syrian army almost broke through. That army was once one of the most powerful in the Middle East. Yet it has been many years since it was that formidable.On December 7th what was left of the Syrian units that had manned the ceasefire lines for half a century . In their place arrived a ragtag group of local rebel groups which put up no resistance the next day when Israeli tanks advanced, taking up positions in what had been a buffer zone. A team of Israeli commandos captured the empty Syrian observation post on Jabal al-Shaykh, at 2,814 metres the highest peak of the Hermon range.The Israeli air force also launched strikes throughout Syria, destroying what Israeli military officials said were “strategic warehouses” containing chemical weapons—which the Assad regime used against rebels on scores of occasions—as well as long-range missiles and anti-aircraft systems. Israel wants to prevent these weapons from being smuggled to Hizbullah, the Iran-backed movement in Lebanon, or being seized by rebel groups potentially hostile to Israel.Once the scene of pitched battles, the Golan is considered by the government to be a crucial asset for Israel’s national security. The heights overlook four countries: Syria, Israel, Lebanon and Jordan. Israel has occupied their western part since 1967.Binyamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, was quick to capitalise on the Israeli advance. Just hours after Bashar al-Assad fled to Moscow, he flew to the Golan for a photo-opportunity. He hailed a “historic day for the Middle East” and claimed credit for the Syrian people’s uprising, saying that it was “the direct result of our forceful action against Hizbullah and Iran”. He added that the Israeli incursions into the eastern part of the heights were “a temporary defensive position until a suitable arrangement is found”. Tellingly, this sentence was absent from an otherwise identical statement in Hebrew. Mr Netanyahu’s far-right coalition partners want to annex parts of the Syrian Golan.Not everyone in Israel’s security establishment thought these steps were necessary. One veteran Syria-watcher in the intelligence community said that “the last thing the rebels are interested in is attacking Israel, which has proven just now how powerful it is in decimating Hizbullah. But our generals are still traumatised by the failure to anticipate Hamas’s attack on October 7th and Netanyahu is inserting himself into the situation to distract attention from his own personal issues.” He was referring to the prime minister’s upcoming testimony in his corruption trial.Until last week, Israel’s long-standing strategy had been to rely on Mr Assad to maintain the tense peace on the border and not to allow Syria to become another launching-pad for attacks on Israel. As far back as 2011, when the civil war in Syria began, Mr Netanyahu was against helping rebel groups to topple the regime. Even when Mr Assad let Iran and Hizbullah operate in Syria, Israel bombed their bases but did not act directly against the regime. In recent months, as Israel struck Hizbullah in Lebanon, it pressed Mr Assad, in messages sent via the Russian government, to cut his ties with Hizbullah and Iran. This wishful thinking remained Israel’s policy up until last week, when the rebels were already on the move towards Damascus.Now that Mr Assad is gone, Israel’s main concern, aside from the regime’s strategic weapons falling into hostile hands, is chaos in Syria that would allow organisations affiliated with Iran to launch rockets and drones. A surprise drone attack on December 9th, launched by the Houthis in Yemen, damaged a building in the Israeli coastal town of Yavne. It was a reminder of such threats.Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (), the , has not threatened Israel in the past and claims to be focused on uniting Syria in the post-Assad era. But some Israeli observers believe that its ideology resembles that of Hamas. They point out that the nom-de-guerre of its leader, Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, refers to his family’s roots in the contested Golan, a sign perhaps that he has designs on that territory. There is also concern about ’s main backers, the Turkish government. The country’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has embraced Hamas and cut most ties between Turkey and Israel.Not all Israeli observers are worried. “There are more opportunities for Israel in Syria than threats now,” says Carmit Valensi, director of the Syria research programme at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv. Most of the rebel groups near the Golan border are not aligned with and include fighters from Druze communities, with which Israel has had good ties in the past. The same is true of the Kurdish rebels dominant in north-eastern Syria. “With Assad gone and Iran no longer powerful in Syria, Israel has a chance to use diplomacy with the new players in Syria and try to ensure security,” says Ms Valensi. Amos Yadlin, a former head of military intelligence who had pushed for the government to topple Syria’s regime, echoes that view. The Golan is unlikely to pose a direct threat, he argues: “Israel should focus on its real priorities, first of which should be ending the war in Gaza with a stable ceasefire.”Israel’s drubbing of Hizbullah, Iran’s main proxy in propping up the Assad regime, certainly played a role in paving the way for the rebels’ triumph. But for both its own and Syria’s sake, for now Israel should remain on the sidelines.