Rwanda’s reckless plan to redraw the map of Africa

THE RESIDENTSDRCM23M23M23M23UNM23UNM23GPSM23M23M23UNMONUSCOMONUSCOM23UNUNM23DRCEU of Goma are no strangers to war. The largest city in the east of the Democratic Republic of Congo () has long been a refuge for those fleeing from violence elsewhere in one of the world’s most blood-soaked regions, where more than 100 armed groups compete for land, loot and political influence. On January 26th the most sophisticated of these militias, a group known as , . Its apparent seizure of Goma, the culmination of more than two years of resurgent violence by the previously dormant group, illustrates the enduring weakness of the Congolese state. It is also a worrying sign that , may be willing to use its strength to redraw the map of the region—and, in doing so, risk another catastrophic African war.The origins of events in Goma go back decades. Between 1996 and 2003 Rwanda and other regional powers fought over the spoils left by the dictatorship of Mobutu Sese Seko, who misruled Congo, which he renamed Zaire, from 1965 until 1997. Rwanda claims its interest in eastern Congo has been to root out remnants of those who fled there after committing the genocide of 1994, and to protect Tutsis, the ethnic group partly extinguished by that highly organised orgy of killing. But Rwanda has long been suspected of using proxies for other reasons, too, such as plundering Congo’s mineral wealth and pulling the area into its sphere of influence.The most important proxy has been , which takes its name from a moribund peace deal signed on March 23rd 2009, between a previous Tutsi-led group and the Congolese government. In 2012 briefly seized Goma for the first time before being defeated by peacekeepers. The group re-emerged in late 2022 after an attempt by Félix Tshisekedi, Congo’s president, to reconfigure regional alliances in ways that could have sidelined Rwanda. Over the past two years it has committed multiple atrocities, including mass rape and murder, while seizing territory across North Kivu, the province of which Goma is the capital.Rwanda denies giving any support to . But in 2022 a report found “solid evidence” that Rwandan troops were fighting alongside it. has used surface-to-air missiles and armoured vehicles that mean it resembles a division of the Rwandan army more than it does a ragtag militia. In the weeks leading up to the latest offensive Rwanda jammed devices used by anti- forces, according to Western diplomats. On January 26th a Rwandan attack drone was launching strikes on the battlefield as soldiers fought against a few hundred Congolese special forces on Mount Goma, on the city’s outskirts, and then in street-to-street battles in downtown Goma. At the time of writing gunfire and the sound of mortars landing could be heard across the city.The fall of Goma underlines the failure of Mr Tshisekedi’s pledge, upon taking office in 2019, to bring peace and order to eastern Congo. The latest attempt at peace talks intended to stem ’s advance, brokered by Angola, fell apart in December. The Congolese army is corrupt and incompetent. After most of its defensive lines collapsed on January 26th grim-faced soldiers have been driving around in jeeps in the centre of town, looking for ways out of the city. Multilateral efforts have fared little better. The 14,000 peacekeepers, known by the acronym , have been undermined by their own track record (they have struggled to keep the peace and several blue helmets have been accused of sexual abuse), as well as Congo’s vacillation about whether or not their mandate would be extended (which it ultimately was for a further year in December 2024). The civilians among were at the time of writing trying to cross the border to safety—in Rwanda. A deployment of troops from southern Africa, led by South Africa, has proved largely useless. Meanwhile hundreds of European mercenaries, known locally as “Romeos” because most are Romanian, have given up their weapons and positions in exchange for their safety.What happens next? Back in 2012, pressure on Paul Kagame, Rwanda’s president, by donor countries including America preceded a swift ouster from Goma of by peacekeepers. That scenario seems less likely this time around. A flurry of diplomatic efforts is under way in response to what Congo’s government has called a “declaration of war”. William Ruto, Kenya’s president, has called for talks between Congo and Rwanda. In a rare display of agreement at the Security Council its members called on to withdraw from Goma and denounced “the unauthorised presence in the Eastern of external forces”.For many observers, however, that implicit criticism of Rwanda is too little, too late. For 30 years it has been seen by the West as a stable country in an unstable region. America has lavished aid on it. Britain wanted it to host asylum-seekers. The has struck minerals and infrastructure deals with Mr Kagame and given his army 40m euros ($42m) to fight an insurgency in northern Mozambique. Yet even if Rwanda itself is a stable autocracy, by fomenting violence in its neighbourhood, it has proved again that it is an exporter of chaos.