Rwanda does a Putin in Congo

SOMETHING AWFULM23UNM23M23M23UNM23UNUNUNUNEU is happening in Congo. A rebel group called , the biggest city in the east of the country, on January 27th, killing several peacekeepers and prompting hundreds of thousands of locals to flee. Hardly anyone outside central Africa knows who are or what they are fighting for. So here’s a helpful analogy: Donbas.In 2014 Vladimir Putin grabbed Donbas, an eastern region of Ukraine, and pretended he had not. As a figleaf he used local separatist forces, which Russia armed, supplied and directed. These forces, he claimed, were protecting ethnic Russians from persecution by bigoted Ukrainians. The Kremlin denied that the Russian army itself was on the ground assisting the rebels, though it was. Later, after Mr Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, he dropped the pretence that the breakaway statelets in Donbas were “independent” and forcibly annexed them in 2022.Rwanda’s dictator, Paul Kagame, has copied these tactics in eastern Congo. The rebels are armed, supplied and directed by his regime. They claim to be protecting Congolese Tutsis from persecution, but this threat is exaggerated. is in fact a proxy for Rwanda, allowing it to grab a big chunk of Congolese territory while pretending not to. The estimates that thousands of Rwandan troops have crossed into Congo to assist with this land grab. Rwanda denies what observers on the ground can plainly see.The consequences are horrific. After years of fighting some 8m people have been driven from their homes in Congo, including 400,000 in the past month. In much of the east, men with guns rape and plunder with impunity. Precious minerals are systematically looted; Rwanda, which mines little gold at home, has mysteriously become a large gold exporter. And now Goma, which was previously home to 2m people, is under occupation, with only a few pockets of resistance remaining. Congo’s government says Rwanda’s actions amount to a declaration of war. Actually it is an undeclared war, an act of stealthy colonialism.The parallel between Russia and Rwanda is imperfect. Rwanda has not formally annexed any of its neighbour’s land. Another difference is that whereas Ukraine was a functioning democracy when Mr Putin invaded it, Congo is chaotic and atrociously governed. Dozens of loosely organised armed groups ravage the east. Rwanda is far from the only predator, but it is the most powerful. Its army is disciplined, motivated and competent, which is why it can bite chunks out of a country 90 times Rwanda’s size.Following the Donbas model, Rwanda has informally created something that looks a lot like a puppet state on Congolese soil. And it may not stop at Goma. Some Western diplomats worry that Mr Kagame ultimately aims to topple the Congolese government. This is not merely illegal and wrong. It is a worrying symptom of a decaying international order.The global taboo against taking other people’s territory is crumbling. Mr Putin is the prime offender, spilling rivers of blood for soil. China menaces Taiwan and claims other countries’ territorial waters. And now President Donald Trump talks of expanding American territory. Against such a background, it is hardly surprising that other leaders have concluded that imperialism is back in fashion.Rwanda’s malign behaviour in Congo is not new. The first seized Goma in 2012. But Western donors swiftly pressed Mr Kagame’s regime to pull the gunmen back, and a well-funded peacekeeping force all but crushed the group. Now the is weaker in Congo. Its garrison in Goma has been hopelessly outgunned. The Security Council condemned the assault and the presence of “external forces”, but stopped short of naming Rwanda.Outside powers are distracted, and Rwanda has more patrons than it did in 2012, having forged alliances with the likes of China, Qatar and Turkey. Under Joe Biden, American diplomats were engaged and warned Mr Kagame against military adventurism, keeping him partially in check. No one knows what Mr Trump’s policy might be, but it probably does not involve a principled articulation of why “might makes right” is a recipe for misery.Other Western governments are torn. Many have a soft spot for Mr Kagame’s Rwanda. Its domestic orderliness makes it easier to run development projects there. Its soldiers serve in peacekeeping operations and protect French gas operations in Mozambique as part of an -funded mission. Mr Kagame, a former rebel leader, retains kudos for stopping Rwanda’s genocide three decades ago. Donors often give Mr Kagame the benefit of the doubt and keep bankrolling his government.They should be much tougher. Rwanda is heavily aid-dependent, with grants covering 12% of its budget and most of its external debt on concessional terms. They should lean harder on Mr Kagame, as they have in the past. America, which has strong military ties with Rwanda, could change Mr Kagame’s incentives with a phone call. Other African states should speak up, too.The alternative—to let Mr Kagame keep his Donbas—is much worse. A world in which the strong seize territory from the weak would be a scarier, more violent place. In Africa, especially, there are countless objections to today’s frontiers, but attempts to move them have usually ended in catastrophe. If blatant breaches of borders are allowed to stand, there will be more of them.