Iran’s regime is weaker than it looks, and therefore more pliable

Twelve months ago Iran was reeling from sparked by the death in custody of a young woman who had been arrested for showing too much hair. Its theocratic regime was increasingly isolated, as Arab states forged with its enemy, Israel. The economy was a mess, adding to popular anger at Iran’s ageing supreme leader and inept president. The Islamic Republic had not seemed so vulnerable in decades.In many ways, its position looks stronger today. Since October 7th have been fighting Israel and attacking American troops in Syria and Iraq. Yet the regime has managed to preserve its recent with Saudi Arabia, and the Saudi rapprochement with Israel is on hold, at least for now. Iran has deepened its ties with Russia by selling it drones. And even though Iran is drawing closer to being a , enriching more and more uranium to 60% purity, America has relaxed its enforcement of oil sanctions. Iran now pumps more than 3.4m barrels a day, a five-year high.