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ASAAD AL-SHAIBANI’sHTSHTSSIMYPGYPGHTSYPG HTSYPGSNAHTS SNASNASNAHTSHTSYPGNATOYour browser does not support the element. professors were puzzled when the postgraduate student, a Syrian refugee, told them in November that he would have to miss a few classes. A few weeks later, Mr al-Shaibani resurfaced in Damascus in the cabinet of ’s new interim government. On January 15th he made an official visit to Turkey, where he had lived for over a decade, as Syria’s new foreign minister.No country has as much to gain from a stable Syria as Turkey, and few have as much to lose if it implodes. Turkey is home to more than 3m Syrian refugees, and wants Syria to be safe enough for many to return. Nor does any other outside power have as far-reaching an agenda for Syria. Turkey wants to smother Kurdish autonomy in Syria’s north, help build a new Syrian army and regain influence in a country it once controlled for 400 years.Turkish officials have brushed aside claims, aired by Donald Trump, America’s newly inaugurated president, that their country was behind the rebel offensive that ousted Bashar al-Assad, Syria’s former dictator. But signs of the outsize role Turkey expects to play in the new Syria are hard to miss. Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has offered to help Syria come up with a new constitution. Turkey’s foreign minister, Hakan Fidan, and its top spy were the first high-level foreign dignitaries to visit Damascus after Hayat Tahrir al-Sham () took power. Turkish businessmen rushed after them. A day after the rebels entered Damascus, Turkey’s top construction and cement companies saw their shares surge. The country’s national carrier, Turkish Airlines, will resume flights to Syria on January 23rd.As a result of offensives Mr Erdogan launched against Kurdish insurgents in Syria’s north, Turkish troops already occupy parts of the country. Syrian rebel groups bankrolled by Mr Erdogan’s government police the enclaves. Turkey provides basic services, including education and health care. Turkey also propped up the quasi-state carved out in Idlib province, in Syria’s north-west.Were it not for the destruction of over 13 years of war, you could almost mistake parts of the north-eastern province of Idlib for Turkey. Shops offer Turkish products. Many businesses accept only Turkish lira. Power lines from Turkey provide electricity around the clock; in Damascus people make do with barely four hours per day. (Over the next year Turkey plans to supply power to Aleppo.) On the road to Idlib, taxi drivers pull over to switch from Syrian cards, which do not work there, to Turkish ones. But with Syria’s new government committed to unifying the country, Turkey’s occupation of northern Syria could be harder to sustain—or justify.Turkey is unlikely to withdraw its troops soon, nor has the new Syrian government asked it to do so. Instead, Turkey is threatening to launch a new offensive against the People’s Protection Units (), American-backed Kurdish insurgents. It wants the ’s foreign fighters to leave Syria, and the group to disarm. , however, is talking to about folding them into Syria’s new army. It does not want a war with the Kurds. Ahmed al-Sharaa, the head of and Syria’s de facto leader, has asked Turkey for time to integrate the . For now, under pressure from America, Turkey is holding fire. But its patience will not last indefinitely. “Either someone else will take action,” says Mr Fidan, “or we will.”Those around Mr Sharaa worry more about the 90,000-odd fighters of the Syrian National Army (), a motley bunch of Turkish proxies, who outnumber those of . The has been accused of extortion, kidnappings and other human-rights abuses, especially against Kurdish civilians, in areas occupied by the Turks. More recently, some of its members have been involved in attacks on Alawites near Latakia and Homs.Mr Erdogan’s government has promised to help. That means leaning on the to dissolve and come under the control of Damascus, says Dareen Khalifa of the International Crisis Group, a think-tank. Turkey could stop funding the and instead contribute directly to Syria’s central budget and thus its new army. Uniting Syria’s armed groups under one umbrella would be almost impossible without Turkish support, says Ms Khalifa., for its part, does not view itself as a Turkish vassal. Mr Sharaa is keen on getting support from all sides. Saudi Arabia is already sending aid and has offered to replace Iran as Syria’s main oil supplier. It can far outspend Turkey in rebuilding Syria and hopes to use that to its advantage. Turkey wants to train and equip Syria’s new army, but another Middle Eastern country has made a better offer, according to one official. “We are grateful,” he says, referring to Turkey, “but we don’t need to put ourselves in any single camp.”For now, at least publicly, Turkish officials are making a point of showing respect for Syria’s sovereignty and its government. “They’re not trying to pressure them into taking specific actions,” says Ms Khalifa. But the magnitude of Turkey’s involvement in Syria is making some Arab governments uneasy. The Saudis see Turkey as a rival for leadership in the Sunni world. The United Arab Emirates and Egypt resent Mr Erdogan’s support for Islamists. Because this caused a painful standoff with the Arab world a decade ago, the Turkish president will be wary of fanning the flames of political Islam once again. The Assad regime publicly embraced pan-Arabism but ultimately served as an Iranian foothold in the Arab world. Syria’s neighbours do not want it to break free of Iran’s influence only for it to come under Turkey’s.Turkey sees Israel as the main obstacle to its ambitions in Syria. It has already chastised the Israelis for strikes that destroyed much of Syria’s surviving military infrastructure, and for approving new settlements in the occupied Golan Heights. Calls from Israel’s foreign minister for more co-operation with Syria’s Kurds have compounded fears in Ankara that Israel is backing the against Turkey.Meanwhile, a recent Israeli government report warned that Turkey’s growing influence in Syria could place the two countries on a collision course. War between one of ’s biggest powers and Israel is unlikely. But the tension is a reminder of what is at stake for Turkey. If the new Syria thrives, the rewards for Turkey will be greater than for anyone else. If chaos returns, it will suffer the blowback.
