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For monthsMOUMOUMOUMOUMOU MOUMOUMOUMOUMOUYour browser does not support the element. a spat between Somalia and Ethiopia had been creeping towards a crisis. In June Somalia threatened to expel all of Ethiopia’s troops from its territory, where they have long spearheaded the regional fight against al-Shabab, a jihadist group. By October Somalia had formed a military alliance with Egypt and Eritrea, Ethiopia’s bitterest foes, as Ethiopia’s army chief mused openly about arming groups hostile to the Somali government. Many feared the tensions could set off proxy wars and draw in other powers in the vicinity or create a security vacuum in Somalia that al-Shabab might exploit.Perhaps they need not have worried. In a surprise announcement on December 11th Ethiopia and Somalia appeared to make up. After negotiations in Ankara, brokered by Turkey, a joint declaration was signed by Abiy Ahmed, Ethiopia’s prime minister, and Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, Somalia’s president, agreeing to “leave behind differences and contentious issues”. Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey’s president, called it a “historic reconciliation”. But there are reasons to be sceptical.At the heart of the crisis is a memorandum of understanding () signed on January 1st between Ethiopia and Somaliland, a self-governing statelet in northern Somalia. Under that agreement Ethiopia had offered to become the first country to recognise the breakaway republic, in return for a long-term lease of a strip of its coastline. This enraged Somalia, which considers Somaliland a renegade province and thus regarded the as a violation of its sovereignty.According to the joint declaration, Ethiopia will now seek “access to and from the sea, under the sovereign authority of the Federal Republic of Somalia”. It has also agreed to respect Somalia’s “territorial integrity”. Somalia argues that this implies the end of the . It will provide Ethiopia with an outlet to the sea for trade; in return, Ethiopia has rescinded its offer to recognise Somaliland. “The is retracted,” says an official in Somalia.Not everyone agrees. The vaguely worded declaration does not mention the and Ethiopia has not confirmed it has cancelled it. Somaliland, the other party to the , has greeted the news from Ankara with a shrug. Senior Somaliland officials say they have heard nothing from Ethiopia to suggest that the deal is off the table.Some experts suspect that Mr Abiy is still committed to the and is simply playing for time. Under President Joe Biden both Ethiopia and Somaliland have been under heavy pressure from America to kill the deal. But both expect Donald Trump’s administration to be more accommodating. “From what I understand, Abiy is not deterred by international pressure, and is determined to pursue the by any means necessary,” says Abel Abate Demissie, an Ethiopia-based analyst for Chatham House, a British think-tank.There is a darker possibility. Mr Abiy may not be satisfied with sea access for commerce, as promised by the deal with Somalia. What he may really want is a naval base. The would have allowed him to build one on Somaliland’s coast. Another option would be somehow to take back Assab or Massawa, Eritrea’s Red Sea ports, over which Ethiopia lost control when Eritrea seceded in 1993.Just over a year ago, Mr Abiy suggested that Ethiopia could try to take the Eritrean ports back by force. His language was subsequently toned down. But recently the idea of reclaiming Assab has resurfaced on Ethiopia’s tightly controlled state media. Last week it was suggested that ceding the port to Eritrea had been unconstitutional and that Ethiopia was being “suffocated” as a result. Add other ominous signs that the two countries are preparing for a conflict, and the outlook looks bleak. “The was just an appetiser,” says an observer. “Assab is the main meal.”
