Can the West win over the rest?

It has become common to describe the world as divided between a reinvigorated Western bloc and an autocratic alliance of China and Russia. Yet this way of thinking has its limitations. For a start, the West is not always united, as ’s botched vanity trip to China demonstrates. And, more strikingly for the great geopolitical contest of the 21st century, at least 4bn people, or more than half of the world’s population, live in over 100 countries that do not want to pick sides.As we explain, these are collectively becoming more important as the global order fragments. States such as are making deals across the divide, and want to have more say in world affairs. Make no mistake: this half of the world is so sprawling that it will never act as a bloc. But if you want to understand why the oil price has spiked back over $80, or how supply chains are being remade, or the prospects for peace in Ukraine, non-aligned countries are a growing part of the equation. Their ascent also raises a big question: as China and the West vie for influence over these countries, who will prevail?