The start of a fragile truce in Gaza offers relief and joy

PEOPLE IN GAZAIDFIDF and Israel celebrated the and the return of three young women held hostage by Hamas on January 19th. The war, sparked by the Islamist movement’s attack on Israel in October 2023, has dragged on for more than 15 months. It is not about to end in a simple ceasefire. The best that can be hoped for is a protracted truce, during which Israel gradually withdraws its forces from the ravaged coastal strip.Delays and crises are likely in the coming weeks. Even the start of the , scheduled for the morning of January 19th, was put off by nearly three hours because Hamas failed to meet a deadline to provide the names of the hostages it would release. Israel had already started to pull back troops from northern Gaza and had allowed, for the first time since May, lorries with aid to enter Gaza directly from Egypt through the Rafah crossing. However, it continued conducting air strikes until Hamas released the names.Israelis and Palestinians are in for a long period of anguish as the hostages, potentially ill, injured or traumatised, are released in small weekly tranches—some will be returning in body-bags—and thousands of displaced families in Gaza return to the rubble of what was once their homes. The Hamas-run health authorities claim that nearly 47,000 people have died there in the war, but many more bodies could be under the wreckage.For the families of the 33 Israeli hostages to be released over the next six weeks there will be relief, and for those whose loved ones have died there is at least an end to uncertainty. For the families of 735 Palestinian prisoners who are due to be freed by Israel there will be much celebration. Among the Israelis who will see the convicted murderers of their relatives go free there will be consternation. Underlying it all will be the fear that this truce is but temporary.Leaders on both sides have been quick to claim victory. Hamas militants emerged from their tunnels to hold gun-toting parades. Binyamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, boasted: “We have changed the face of the Middle East.”Under the terms of the agreement signed on January 15th, there are to be two more stages leading to a full ceasefire. The next is to include the withdrawal of Israeli troops from all of Gaza, including from corridors bisecting the territory and cutting it off from Egypt, and from buffer-zones on its periphery. It also involves the release of all remaining living hostages. In the third stage bodies will be returned and reconstruction of devastated Gaza will begin.Talks to finalise the details of the next stage are to begin on February 4th. The basic parameters of the deal have been agreed upon, but difficult details must yet be resolved. Both sides are expected to drive a hard bargain over the withdrawal timetable and concerning the lists of hundreds more prisoners that Hamas demands in return for the remaining hostages.Another reason for the fragility of the ceasefire is the absence of a governing authority in Gaza that will be acceptable to Israel. Hamas has lost nearly all its senior leadership there to Israeli strikes. However a younger generation of commanders has come to the fore and there is no alternative force to challenge them. The Ramallah-based Palestinian Authority, which was ousted from Gaza by Hamas in a coup in 2007, has said it is prepared to take responsibility for the strip, but it lacks the capacity to govern and secure the territory.Throughout the war Mr Netanyahu refused all entreaties from the Israeli security establishment, and from other governments, to prepare for an alternative force to secure Gaza. His excuse was that Hamas must first be fully vanquished. With Israel leaving Gaza Hamas, though battered, is already taking back control.Gaza is not the only place where the ceasefire could be broken. The largest Palestinian population is in the West Bank, where 3m live under an uneasy collaboration between the Palestinian Authority and the Israel Defence Forces (). Jewish settlers have made no secret of their desire to annex both the West Bank and Gaza, and would gladly derail the ceasefire by provoking a Palestinian uprising. The has begun reinforcing its forces in the West Bank. Mr Netanyahu, in a gesture to the ultra-nationalist parties propping up his coalition government, has vowed to degrade the capabilities of what he calls “terror organisations” in the West Bank.This was one of the demands of Bezalel Smotrich, the finance minister and leader of the hard-right Religious Zionism party, who opposes the deal. After it was authorised by the cabinet he claimed to have received “guarantees” from Mr Netanyahu that Israel would continue the war once the first stage of the ceasefire is over. Religious Zionism is threatening to leave the coalition if Mr Netanyahu does not keep that promise. That would deny Mr Netanyahu his majority in the Knesset, Israel’s parliament, and could force him to call early elections. Jewish Power, another coalition member, led by Itamar Ben-Gvir, the firebrand national-security minister, has already said its members are resigning.Left with the slimmest of majorities, Mr Netanyahu has a clear incentive to abandon the ceasefire agreement should he get an excuse to do so. In his speech announcing the deal, he did not accept that the war was over and said that “if we need to go back to the fighting, we will do so in new ways and with great force.”He remains stuck between the demands of his right-wing coalition members and the desire of a majority of Israelis for peace in exchange for all the hostages coming home. Complicating matters for him is the insistence of the incoming administration of that Israel ends the war. Much will ride on whether the Americans keep up their pressure.