From inside an obliterated Gaza, gunfire not a ceasefire

Once homeidfidf to nearly 200,000 residents, , the main town in northern Gaza, is a deserted wasteland of destroyed buildings and churned-up mud. But the soldiers of the Israel Defence Forces (), now on their third offensive there since began in October 2023, have no idea when they are leaving.“We still have a mission here,” insists Major Omer, commander of an infantry company, who accompanied on a brief visit to Jabalia. “There are still Hamas snipers hiding, carrying out ambushes. It is now the most basic and bitter guerrilla war.” The young soldiers and officers may still believe in the mission, but their former commander, Yoav Gallant, the defence minister , has admitted in private that the no longer has a military . Occasionally, the major’s men encounter civilians, whom they force towards the seething mass of misery of around 1.5m displaced Gazans huddled in southern Gaza. The operation in Jabalia, which is in its fourth month, could drag on indefinitely. Or it could end in days, if a ceasefire being negotiated in Cairo and Doha is agreed.Only a few thousand civilians remain in Gaza’s northern quarter. Some right-wing Israeli politicians and generals want to prevent those who lived there ever returning. Others insist that Israel’s military presence is temporary, until a deal is reached with Hamas, the Islamists behind the October 7th attacks. But that remains elusive.The odds of a ceasefire have little to do with the situation in Gaza, where at least 45,000 people, well over half of them civilians, have been killed in the war. Neither Israel’s military objectives—or lack thereof—nor the immense suffering of most Gazans, now entering a second winter in a cramped “humanitarian zone” where several babies have died of hypothermia, drives the policy. The main considerations of both sides are political.The basics of the notional deal supposedly on the table have not changed since May, when they were first laid out: Israel would withdraw fully from Gaza, in stages, in return for the release of 98 Israeli hostages, around half of whom are assumed to be alive. But in public Binyamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, insists Israel will fight on until it achieves “total victory” over Hamas, whatever that means. Hamas, despite its shattered state, is showing little flexibility, refusing to release hostages before Israel guarantees a withdrawal.Mr Netanyahu is under pressure from his far-right allies, who talk of building settlements in Gaza. Ending the war could bring down his government and bring on the public reckoning he has been evading. Hamas leaders are anxious to retain some control over the rubble of Gaza and keep some hostages as bargaining chips.America’s secretary of state, Antony Blinken, insisted on January 8th that “we’re very close to a ceasefire and hostage agreement.” But those close to the talks believe a deal which will end the war and free all the hostages is extremely unlikely before Donald Trump takes office. It is more likely that a smaller number of hostages will be released in return for a truce of a few weeks. For now, even a short respite for Gaza seems too much to hope for.