Mozambique’s opposition leader flies home into chaos

IT HAS been three months since a in Mozambique in which Venâncio Mondlane, the popular opposition candidate, says he was cheated of victory by Frelimo, the party that has ruled the country for half a century. For most of that time he has been in self-imposed exile, choreographing from afar to which security forces have responded with increasing brutality. Ahead of the inauguration of the official winner, Daniel Chapo, on January 15th, Mr Mondlane is raising the stakes. He plans to return on January 9th and informally swear himself in as president on the day Mr Chapo takes office.Mr Mondlane’s return will be the latest twist in a saga that has rocked the country of 35m people. Last month the constitutional court confirmed the election results, reallocating a few percentage points here and there, but declaring Mr Chapo the winner with an implausible 65% of the vote. With no legal avenues left, Mr Mondlane has called for fresh protests to accompany his planned return. How the government responds will determine whether Mozambique resolves its crisis, or continues its plunge into chaos.Protests against the election result have turned into a popular uprising against Frelimo. The streets echo to whistles and shouts of “the people in power”. Angry crowds have burned courts, police stations and Frelimo party offices. Others have looted shops, raided factories and attacked mines, complaining that their land has been stolen or that promises of development have been broken. After months of protest from farmers an Australian-owned graphite mine suspended operations and secured a waiver on loans owed to the American government. One of the world’s biggest ruby mines closed for days after informal miners invaded its site, wanting to dig for gems themselves.The state no longer maintains basic order. On Christmas day thousands of inmates escaped from four different prisons in murky circumstances. Local rights groups allege that more than a hundred were executed after being recaptured. “Mozambique is moving towards the institutionalisation of anarchy,” warned Carlos Martins, the president of the bar association. Some speculate that Frelimo is instigating chaos as an excuse to crack down.Security forces have killed around 300 people since the protests began, including 176 in the final week of December alone, according to local rights groups. Tens of thousands have fled to neighbouring countries. Many more feel like Lídia, a shopkeeper in the capital Maputo, who does not know if her business will survive a new wave of protests. The economy is shrinking, reckons Standard Bank.So far there is no sign of compromise. The outgoing president, Filipe Nyusi, is “in the exit lounge,” says Borges Nhamirre of the Institute for Security Studies, a South African think-tank, meaning the initiative for talks with the opposition now lies with Mr Chapo. Once he is sworn in, he could offer to meet some of Mr Mondlane’s demands in return for the opposition leader calling off the protests. That might involve trimming presidential powers and giving Mr Mondlane the opportunity to make good on his promises to build houses and finance small businesses.The Southern African Development Community, a regional bloc, has made half-hearted offers to help broker an agreement. Its leaders are loath to back change, for fear of giving their own people ideas. The most serious effort has come from South Africa, which worries about economic spillover from the crisis. But the envoy it dispatched was given a cool welcome by Mozambique’s government.Instead of trying to negotiate, Mr Chapo could wait it out, hoping the unrest eventually dies down. Tomás Queface, a security consultant, thinks that Frelimo will try to “eliminate Venâncio Mondlane politically” by pursuing criminal cases against him. Politicians from the Podemos party, which is allied with Mr Mondlane, have said they will take up their seats in parliament, which he considers a betrayal. Once ensconced within the state, they will have less incentive to overthrow it.If protests continue, there is a danger that the current anarchy morphs into a more systematic confrontation, perhaps through a violent split in the security forces. Many ordinary soldiers probably harbour sympathies for Mr Mondlane. The higher ranks do well from the status quo. Those who have taken to the streets in recent months may worry about the opposite danger: that politicians compromise too readily, and the uprising against a broken system changes nothing much at all.