The Gaza ceasefire is stoking violence in the West Bank

THE PALESTINIANidfidfidfidfidfidfidfidf villages of al-Funduk and Jinsafut have been under unofficial curfews since January 20th. Armoured vehicles of the Israel Defence Forces () patrol their deserted streets. At the exits from other towns and villages in the , long queues of vehicles wait hours for inspection at Israeli checkpoints.The official reason for the clampdown given by the was a spate of shootings and stabbings in recent weeks, in the West Bank and in Tel Aviv, and explosive devices hidden on the roads which killed and wounded Israeli civilians and troops. But the immediate trigger was riots by , enraged that Palestinian prisoners were returning to their homes as part of the deal between Israel and Hamas in Gaza. Al-Funduk and Jinsafut were the main targets; settlers torched cars and buildings on January 20th. Israeli security forces were slow to arrive and repel the attackers.The next day two Israeli brigades, with covering fire from drones and attack helicopters, descended on Jenin. The main Palestinian city in the northern West Bank has long been a centre of militant activity. But in recent months the security forces of the Palestinian Authority have fought to restore order there. Now the , which has struck Jenin twice in the past 20 months, has returned in another show of force. Israeli security officials deny the operation was to assuage the settlers. They maintained that they were acting on intelligence that Hamas is working in Jenin to open up a new front in the West Bank.“We are determined both to fight Hamas wherever it tries to operate and to prevent violence by Israeli citizens,” insists one senior Israeli officer. These two missions do not sit comfortably together. Many Israeli soldiers are settlers; some have joined the rioters. Many of the ’s West Bank bases are next to the settlements, and the main job of troops stationed there is to protect their residents. And though the army claims to be fighting settler violence, its political boss, the defence minister Israel Katz, announced a few days ago that he was releasing from administrative detention suspected organisers of past attacks on Palestinians.Both the settlers and Hamas, the Islamists who run Gaza and also have a presence in the West Bank, are keen to foment violence there. For now, Hamas wants to preserve the ceasefire in Gaza. It has provided the movement with some much-needed respite from the ’s incessant attacks since October 2023. However, it also needs to prove that it is still a fighting force. It is using the West Bank to do so.Meanwhile the settler movement has made no secret of its desire to rebuild its communities in Gaza, which Israel dismantled in 2005. For that, they need the war in Gaza to continue indefinitely, thus perpetuating Israeli control of the strip. Provoking a new conflagration with the Palestinians in the West Bank might achieve that. More violence there could scupper the next round of ceasefire talks. It could also lead to attacks against the in Gaza by Hamas. Squeezing Binyamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, politically might also achieve their goals. One of the settlers’ leaders, Bezalel Smotrich, is an important ally of Mr Netanyahu. If Israel does not restart the war in Gaza within six weeks, he has promised to topple the government.Meanwhile on the ground in Gaza the ceasefire, which came into effect on January 19th, is holding. The first hostages have been released as have 90 Palestinian prisoners. Aid has begun to flow in. The has begun to dismantle some of its bases. Displaced Gazans are returning to the rubble of their homes. Will the truce hold beyond this first stage? Much depends on Donald Trump. In the weeks before he took office he exerted significant pressure on Mr Netanyahu to accept the agreement with Hamas. But in the first hours of his presidency, he repealed sanctions placed by the Biden administration on some Israeli settlers. A number of his key diplomatic appointments, including the new secretary of state, Marco Rubio, and the future ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee, have supported Israeli settlement in the West Bank. In her Senate confirmation hearing on January 21st, Mr Trump’s choice as the next ambassador to the United Nations, Elise Stefanik, affirmed her belief in Israel’s “biblical right to the entire West Bank”.Nevertheless, the impression of senior Israeli officials and diplomats working with the Americans is that Mr Trump wants to prioritise building a regional alliance in which Israel and Saudi Arabia are central. Ending the war in Gaza is a key part of any such plan.That leaves Mr Netanyahu in a political bind. Itamar Ben-Gvir, the former national-security minister and leader of one of the two far-right parties in his coalition, has already resigned from the government in protest over the Gaza deal. If Mr Smotrich makes good on his threats, Mr Netanyahu’s coalition will lose its majority. The opposition has promised to support him until the ceasefire is complete; but ultimately this would mean holding an early election.Mr Netanyahu is facing increasing calls for a reckoning with the failure of Israel’s leadership to anticipate the catastrophic attack by Hamas in October 2023 that sparked the war. On January 21st the ’s chief of staff, Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi, announced his resignation, taking responsibility for the debacle. The man who led Israel on that day still refuses to do so. An explosion of violence on the West Bank would help him defer the fateful day when he is called to account. ■