Traffic may 'grind to a halt' after transit COVID-19 grants run out, RTA warns

Commuters could be spending a lot more time in cars starting in 2026 when the federal COVID-19 dollars propping up Chicago-area transit agencies run dry, according to a dire assessment from the Regional Transportation Authority.“The dense North Side of the city ... is likely going to grind to a halt because more people [will] rely on cars to make trips,” the RTA’s program manager Peter Kersten said Thursday at the agency’s board meeting.Kersten’s presentation painted two starkly different scenarios, based on whether state legislators beef up spending on public transit by 2026 to avoid drastic service cuts.That’s when the area’s underused transit agencies — the Chicago Transit Authority, Metra and Pace — are expected to drive off the “fiscal cliff,” collectively going into $730 million of debt in the first year.On the one hand, the state could increase transit spending to reach the “regional transit” model, where residents could easily travel almost anywhere in the Chicago area without a car. A 20% boost in funding could result in 30% to 40% more trains and buses, Kersten saidA bill working its way through the state Legislature seeks to do something like that. The Metropolitan Mobility Authority Act would pump $1.5 billion a year into the area’s public transit, though legislators first want reforms, such as potentially combining the Chicago area’s four agencies into one.On the other hand, commuters could see their travel times nearly double if the state does not commit more tax dollars to public transit, the RTA warned. More people would be forced to rely on cars for commuting as transit agencies cut service to balance their budgets.“We will see more people stuck in traffic. And you will spend more time waiting in your car to get where you need to go than we would if you were on a train,” Kersten said. Under that scenario, riders could see 30% to 40% fewer buses and trains.The fallout could ripple through the entire economy.The Chicago area could see a $2.6 billion loss in gross domestic product, largely driven by about 27,000 jobs that are lost in the first year, Kersten said. The jobs would be lost due to fewer construction jobs committed to transit and the loss of easy access to jobs farther from where people live, he said.Legislators should consider that loss in GDP when mulling over the significant cost of propping up the area’s transit agencies, Kersten said.“The $1.5 billion a year funding investment shouldn’t just be looked at as a cost,” Kersten said. “The cost from not funding our ‘cliff’ will lead to these higher societal and economic costs by, easily, three to four times the dollar value of the investment.” State Sen. Ram Villivalam has been holding public hearings across the area on the proposed bill to fund and potentially reshape the area’s transit agencies.Villavalem and state Rep. Eva-Dina Delgado, both Chicago Democrats, wrote the bill based on recommendations from a report completed last year that suggested lawmakers consider new taxes and consolidate the four transit boards, which have a combined total of 47 members appointed by 21 elected officials.The transit agencies don’t support the move to combine their boards. They instead have .The RTA on Thursday took a middle path, suggesting that lawmakers increase the RTA’s power to oversee CTA, Metra and Pace. Kyle Whitehead, the RTA’s principal of government affairs, said the RTA should be allowed to set the frequency of trains and buses for each of the three other agencies. The RTA should also be allowed to set ticket prices and choose which construction projects get prioritized, he said. The changes could bring more federal money to Chicago-area transit projects, since federal grants increasingly want to see “regional vision and coordination in projects,” Whitehead said.Illinois lawmakers may take up the bill in the upcoming veto session, set for mid- to late November.