Israel and Hizbullah strike a fragile deal to end their war

IT HARDLY LOOKEDUNUNGDP as if a truce was imminent. The afternoon of November 26th saw Israel launch dozens of air strikes on Beirut’s southern suburbs, some of the heaviest bombardment this year. Then the Israeli army told people to evacuate the heart of the Lebanese capital, an area where , a Shia militia, has no armed presence. Traffic jams stretched for kilometres as panicked residents fled.Even as , though, the Israeli cabinet met to approve a ceasefire that would end its 14-month war against Hizbullah. The next few hours were tightly choreographed. Binyamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, told Israelis about the deal in a televised speech. Then came an announcement from Joe Biden, the American president. The Lebanese cabinet was not expected to meet until the next morning, but its vote will be little more than a formality.The deal, which took effect at 4am local time on November 27th, calls for a 60-day halt to the fighting. During that period will move its fighters north of the Litani river, about 30km from the border with Israel, which will gradually withdraw its own forces from south Lebanon. The Lebanese army will deploy around 5,000 soldiers to the region. All of this will be monitored by a panel of five countries, led by America. Israel will retain the right to strike at “immediate threats” in Lebanon.Both sides have good reason to end the war. It began last year, when Hizbullah started firing rockets at Israel in solidarity with Hamas, the Palestinian militant group that massacred more than 1,100 Israelis on . For almost a year Israel and Hizbullah kept the battle limited to back-and-forth bombardment near the border. In September, though, Israel expanded its air strikes across Lebanon, and in October it launched a ground invasion.A year of combat, both in Lebanon and in Gaza, has placed enormous strain on the Israeli army. Many reservists have been called up for long tours of duty: 54% of those mobilised since October 7th have done more than 100 days of service. To continue the war in Lebanon would mean expanding it, and Israel’s generals are reluctant to impose an even heavier burden on the force. Mr Netanyahu alluded to these pressures in his speech, saying the army needed a breather.As for Hizbullah, its leadership has been largely wiped out this year, including Hassan Nasrallah, its charismatic boss for more than three decades. It has lost much of its advanced missile arsenal and its military infrastructure in south Lebanon. Those losses will only mount if the war drags on. Most Lebanese did not want it to begin in the first place and are desperate for it to end.But both sides also have concerns about the deal. The fear in Israel is a repeat of 2006: its previous war against Hizbullah ended with Resolution 1701, which called for the militia to disarm. Hizbullah ignored that edict and the Lebanese army, which was meant to patrol the region south of the Litani, was too weak to enforce it. Some Israeli politicians fear that this agreement will prove equally hollow. “We must not do half the job,” said Benny Gantz, the opposition leader.The Lebanese army is still weak. Five years into an economic crisis that bankrupted the Lebanese state, many soldiers moonlight as taxi drivers to supplement monthly salaries that are worth as little as $100. The army will need donations from Western and Arab backers to recruit and equip more troops. Even with financial help, it is unclear if Lebanese troops will be willing and able to confront Hizbullah.Around 70,000 Israelis have been displaced from towns near the border for more than a year. Israel’s stated goal in the war was to make them feel safe enough to return home, and it is unclear if this agreement will do the job. Mayors of some northern towns have criticised the deal, saying they want stronger guarantees that Hizbullah will be kept away from the border.The five-country monitoring panel is meant to review alleged violations of the agreement. If the Lebanese army and peacekeepers fail to act, Israel says it will. “The length of the ceasefire depends on what happens in Lebanon,” said Mr Netanyahu. That may not mean a return to all-out war, but there will probably be new rules of engagement between Israel and Hizbullah in the coming years, with frequent Israeli strikes in Lebanon.Many Lebanese will be unable to return home. The World Bank estimates the war has caused $8.5bn in damage and economic losses, more than one-third of Lebanon’s . Close to 1m people have been displaced and around 100,000 homes have been damaged. Entire villages in the south have been razed. The state cannot afford to do much reconstruction.Yet for all the caveats, the ceasefire is a rare bit of good news. A regional war that seemed to be inexorably growing will now shrink. American officials used to say the way to end the crisis in Lebanon was to get a deal in Gaza. Now they hope the Lebanon deal will help solve Gaza instead. “One of the things that Hamas has sought from day one is to get others in on the fight,” said Antony Blinken, America’s secretary of state. “If it sees that the cavalry is not on the way, that may incentivise it to do what it needs to do to end this conflict.” Brett McGurk, a Middle East adviser to Mr Biden, travelled this week to Riyadh, Saudi Arabia’s capital, to make one more push for a broader regional agreement.Those diplomats are likely to be disappointed. The Israeli prime minister has political cover to end the war in Lebanon. Though some of his coalition partners are unhappy with the terms of the ceasefire, they did not threaten to bolt the government over it. A truce will also please Donald Trump, who told Lebanese-American voters in October that he would end the war in their homeland.Mr Netanyahu has very different incentives in Gaza. His far-right allies dream of rebuilding the settlements that were evacuated in 2005 and have vowed to bring down the coalition if Israel withdraws. The prime minister himself fears that a ceasefire would clear the way for a commission of inquiry into Israel’s failure to prevent the October 7th massacre (he is unlikely to come out of it looking good). And Mr Trump does not seem eager to squeeze him.For more than a year, Hizbullah insisted it would not stop fighting Israel until Israel stopped fighting in Gaza. Israel has now broken the link between the two fronts. That will take some of the pressure off its overstretched army. By ending one war, Mr Netanyahu may make it easier to continue the other.