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JUST HOURSTVUNGDPFEDYour browser does not support the element. after polling stations closed in California on November 5th, a Minuteman III missile thundered out of the Vandenberg military base on the Pacific coast. Half an hour later and 4,200 miles away, three mock warheads struck Kwajalein atoll in the Marshall Islands. The timing of the test—announced to both Russia and —was probably no coincidence: America was sending a message. Whoever was elected, its armed forces were ready to respond to any threat. American presidential transitions are unusually fraught, in part because they are lengthy. For more than 70 days the world’s greatest power is in a twilight zone between two presidents: one in power but with dwindling influence; the other triumphant but not yet at the Resolute Desk. The changeover from President Joe Biden to Donald Trump is more scary than most, given wars raging in Europe and the Middle East, and worries about a new one starting in Asia. The Trump team’s contempt for Mr Biden, suspicion of the “deep state” and do not soothe nerves. Mr Trump’s team has not signed the customary memorandum with the General Services Administration, so his alternative court at Mar-a-Lago is contacting world leaders without serving diplomats, official interpreters or secure communications.Sometimes transitions are an opportunity for overtures from rivals—Iran’s revolutionaries freed 52 American hostages minutes after Ronald Reagan’s inauguration in 1981. Or from allies: this week the European Union redirected billions of euros to defence. Mostly they offer a last chance for presidents to try to secure their legacies. Mr Biden, though, is the lamest of ducks, and bequeaths a turbulent world. Can he do anything beyond mark time?Begin with the war in Ukraine. Mr Trump has promised to end the fighting “within a day”. That suggests he would cut off support to Ukraine to force it into a deal with Russia. The war may thus intensify as both sides, especially Russia, try to improve their positions ahead of possible ceasefire talks. “Russia has not yet got what it wanted,” says Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to the Ukrainian president. “Why should Russia stop?”With the help of North Korean troops, Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, may seek to recover Russian territory in Kursk province that Ukraine seized earlier this year. He may also want to take important ground in Ukraine. Meanwhile, he is attempting to destroy Ukraine’s energy grid as the weather turns cold, and to curb its weapons production. At least the risk of Russia’s resorting to nuclear weapons appears to have diminished now that its forces are grinding forward; and more so if Mr Putin thinks Mr Trump will favour him.Mr Biden, for his part, is trying to spend all the remaining arms assistance authorised by Congress—about $6bn—before he leaves the White House. Some hope he might belatedly ease restrictions on deep strikes into Russia, if not with American missiles then at least with European ones using American technology. All this may be too little to stop Russia’s advance.Mr Trump’s signals are, as ever, mixed. The reported and actual nominations of hawkish congressmen, such as Marco Rubio, as secretary of state, and of , as national security adviser, raised hopes among allies that Mr Trump might turn into a more conventional Republican president. He is said to have held a conversation with Mr Putin (denied by the Kremlin) in which he warned Russia not to escalate in Ukraine. Then again, Mr Trump’s elder son gleefully reposted a clip saying Ukraine was about to lose its “allowance”. And the nomination of a culture warrior, Pete Hegseth, as defence secretary, raises worries of chaos at the Pentagon.The Middle East, meanwhile, poses several risks. One is that a year-long regional war, which started in Gaza and spread to Lebanon and beyond, will expand. Iran and Israel are stuck in a cycle of back-and-forth bombardment. Israel carried out the most recent attack, on October 26th, with air strikes against Iranian air-defence systems and missile-production facilities. Iran has vowed to hit back at Israel. It might do so via proxies in Iraq, rather than directly with ballistic missiles, as it has done twice this year.Iran knows Mr Trump will return to a policy of “maximum pressure” against it, not least because it is implicated in plots to kill him. Some diplomats reckon Iran will now show restraint. Ali Larijani, a former speaker of Iran’s parliament, has urged the government not to launch an “instinctive” response. But others think it will strike anyway. “This might be their last opportunity,” says one Arab envoy.A different risk is that Israel will seek to improve its position, perhaps by attacking Iran pre-emptively and hitting nuclear sites or energy facilities that Mr Biden had restrained it from doing in previous rounds. Israel could move on other fronts as well. Its army is besieging northern Gaza, where the has warned of imminent famine. It seems determined to drive Palestinians out of this part of the territory—where some right-wing Israelis hope to rebuild the Jewish settlements that were dismantled in 2005. Bezalel Smotrich, Israel’s far-right finance minister, said on November 13th that he had ordered preparations for the annexation of settlements in the occupied West Bank.Binyamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, has reason to believe he will enjoy much latitude. In his first term Mr Trump strongly supported Israel. Despite more recent tensions between the two leaders, he has just named Mike Huckabee, a former governor of Arkansas and a pro-settlement evangelical, as his ambassador to Israel.Mr Biden has consistently failed to mediate a ceasefire, or to compel Mr Netanyahu to ease civilian suffering in Gaza. A 30-day American deadline for Israel to expand the flow of aid to Gaza, backed by the threat of losing some weaponry, has expired with America taking no action.A final concern is that Iran, having enriched a stockpile of uranium close to weapon grade, may dash for a nuclear bomb, hoping it can do so before Israel notices and before Mr Biden or Mr Trump can muster the will for a bombing campaign to try to push it back.In Asia the coming months could also be tense. China carried out two large military exercises near Taiwan this year. The next drills could take place around January 1st, when Taiwan’s president, Lai Ching-te, gives a new year’s address. China is likely to react aggressively whatever he says. Another flashpoint could come if Mr Lai makes a “transit stop” in America, as new Taiwanese presidents usually do.Mr Biden has repeatedly said America would defend Taiwan if China tried to invade it. Mr Trump has suggested otherwise. Or, comparing himself to a mobster, he has said that Taiwan needs to pay more “protection” money. Some in Taiwan think the country needs to sharply increase defence spending, from 2.5% to 4% of . Tellingly, Taiwanese officials are also discussing a big order of American weapons, reportedly including -35 fighter jets, air-defence systems, Aegis warships and the -2 Advanced Hawkeye airborne radar system. Successive American governments have urged Taiwan to avoid such big-ticket equipment that will quickly be lost in a war. But Taiwan may feel they will help it deal with China’s current harassment, short of war. And if it gets Mr Trump’s attention, all the better.The Philippines, which has suffered successive run-ins with the Chinese coastguard over disputed waters in the South China Sea, has announced it wants to buy the intermediate-range Typhon missile system from America.Trouble may emerge elsewhere. North Korea has been testing missiles able to reach the continental United States, and may feel emboldened by its recent defence alliance with Russia. Turkey may feel this is the perfect moment to launch a new offensive against Kurdish fighters in northern Syria. A surge of migrants may try to rush America’s border before Mr Trump imposes new restrictions.There is much uncertainty surrounding Mr Trump. His supporters believe unpredictability strengthens American deterrence. But an irascible, transactional president also frightens allies—particularly if he is intent on levying tariffs of 10-20% on all countries, friend or foe. And all know that, soon enough, it will be Mr Trump who controls America’s Minuteman III missiles and its other instruments of power.
