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IT IS RAREmpMPMPYour browser does not support the element. that a presidential palace stays empty for long: politics abhors a vacuum. But the one in Baabda, in the hills above Lebanon’s capital, Beirut, has been vacant since October 2022, when Michel Aoun finished his six-year term. Lawmakers have failed to select his successor a dozen times. The last attempt was in June 2023, but as went to press on January 9th, they were trying again.Expectations were rising in the weeks before the vote. The faction led by Hizbullah had been weakened by the Shia militia’s war against Israel and the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in neighbouring Syria. It seemed as if s might be able to break their deadlock, with the army chief, General Joseph Aoun (no relation to the former president), favoured to win.Yet on the eve of the vote, people close to the general cautioned that he may not have enough support. The Middle East has been through dramatic change over the past year—but Lebanon’s venal politics may prove stubbornly rigid.Though Lebanon’s presidency is mostly symbolic, it has a few important powers, like approving prime ministers and cabinets. In a country still haunted by the memory of civil war, symbolism is important too: how the head of state is chosen says much about the balance of power in Lebanon’s factious politics.The first 12 votes in parliament were desultory; many s abstained or plumped for ineligible write-in candidates such as Salvador Allende. After the last failed vote, they settled into two camps. Hizbullah and its allies endorsed Suleiman Frangieh, an undistinguished politician who was close to the Assad regime. Their foes backed General Aoun. Neither side had the support for its candidate to win.That began to change after the war with Israel, which ended on November 27th with a shaky ceasefire. It left Hizbullah less popular than ever, resented by many for dragging the country into conflict. The group’s charismatic leader, Hassan Nasrallah, was dead. So was his heir apparent. Its interim boss, Naim Qassem, is a colourless functionary. For now, Hizbullah seems incapable of imposing its will on Lebanon.Less than two weeks later, Mr Assad made his unexpected flight from Damascus. Mr Frangieh’s close ties with the Assad regime ceased to be an asset. Syria’s interim government was in no position to meddle, even if it wanted to. “We have no plans to get involved in Lebanon’s affairs,” Ahmad al-Sharaa, Syria’s de facto leader, told journalists last month. He said he had no objection to General Aoun (or any other candidate) being president.Then Wafiq Safa rose from the dead. Not literally, of course. While Mr Safa, a feared Hizbullah enforcer, was thought to have been killed in an Israeli air strike in October, he in fact survived. In early January, in his first media appearance since the war, he too said Hizbullah would not “veto” General Aoun’s candidacy. Instead, he said, the party had just one proscription: it would not accept the nomination of Samir Geagea, the head of the Lebanese Forces, a right-wing Christian party.That red line was something of a red herring. Almost no one had previously considered Mr Geagea a serious candidate. A ruthless warlord during the civil war, his nomination for president would be deeply divisive. Indeed, he was one of General Aoun’s earliest supporters.Trying to veto a candidate who had little chance of winning anyway says much about Hizbullah’s diminished power. It is nervous about General Aoun, who has the support of Lebanon’s Western and Arab allies. Saudi Arabia openly backs his candidacy, and America sees the general as a force for stability.Many Lebanese are relying on their own army to enforce the ceasefire, which demands that Hizbullah withdraw its fighters and weapons from the country’s south. The pull-out is meant to happen before January 26th, a deadline that seems likely to slip. Israel also appears to be in no rush to withdraw its troops.Hizbullah is in no position to be defiant. It knows that Lebanon is desperate for money to rebuild after the recent war with Israel, which caused an estimated $9bn worth of damage and economic losses. It also knows its Iranian patrons cannot provide it. The only source of reconstruction aid will be rich Gulf states, which Hizbullah must not antagonise. On January 8th Mr Frangieh dropped out of the race.None of this guarantees that General Aoun will win the job. He has powerful opponents, among them Gebran Bassil, a Christian who wants the presidency for himself. And even if he does win, a reform-minded president may not ensure that Lebanon will reform. Hizbullah has long been a malevolent force in the country’s politics—but it is far from the only one.
