France needs a proper debate ahead of its presidential election

FIVE YEARSTV ago a little-known former economy minister won the French presidency in his first bid for elected office. Emmanuel Macron, then 39, became the country’s youngest leader since Napoleon Bonaparte. On April 10th and 24th France will hold its next two-round presidential election. Mr Macron hopes to defy precedent again by securing a second term. This would be quite a feat. For the past 20 years no French president has been re-elected. Only two, François Mitterrand and Jacques Chirac, have won a second term since Charles de Gaulle in 1965.Mr Macron is nonetheless the strong favourite. Our model gives him an 88% probability of re-election, even though he has yet to hold a rally or take to the campaign trail. Mr Macron has had a lot on, softening the impact (successfully) of a surge in covid-19 cases in January and then (unsuccessfully) trying to talk Vladimir Putin out of going to war. But this is making for an , as his rivals criss-cross France and take part in endless debates without the one candidate they all denounce. Assuming he declares by the legal deadline on March 4th, Mr Macron has just five weeks to lay out what he wants to do with a second term, and how he plans to do it.