Why Kenya’s election is going down to the wire

tend to veer between emotional extremes. The one in 2002 was joyful as voters swept an opposition candidate to the presidency for the first time. A disputed poll in 2007 was horrifying: perhaps 1,400 people were killed in its aftermath. The latest, on August 9th, has unexpectedly turned into a nail-biter.Opinion polls in the days before the election suggested that Raila Odinga, a veteran opposition leader making his fifth run for president, would stroll to victory with a lead of six to eight points over William Ruto, the deputy president. Cynical sorts, influenced by Kenya’s history of iffy elections, reckoned that even if Mr Odinga lost, the establishment would fiddle the count in his favour. Both assumptions seem to be wide of the mark.