Huge anti-Russian protests in Tbilisi echo Ukraine’s Maidan

THE ECHOESGDGDUNMGDEUGDEUNATOGDEUEU seem obvious. A Kremlin-backed oligarch grabs power and breaks off the country’s relationship with the European Union, eliciting huge protests. Masked police beat up peaceful demonstrators, bringing more people onto the street. Such were the scenes during Kyiv’s in 2013-14, which overthrew that country’s president and ultimately led to a Russian invasion.Over the past few days similar events have been playing out in Tbilisi, the capital of Georgia. Tens of thousands of demonstrators have poured into the streets every night. Police have beaten and tear-gassed protestors, who have surrounded the parliament building and subjected it to a barrage of fireworks. “Our future is being stolen from us,” said 29-year-old Michael Meskhi, gesturing towards the crowd, many wearing gas masks. “We all want the same thing: Europe, not Russia.”The authorities still seem confident, and observers say there is little chance of a Maidan-style collapse. The government is, in effect, in the hands of Bidzina Ivanishvili, a secretive billionaire who made his fortune in Russia. For the past 12 years the Georgian Dream () party, which he founded and still controls, has been running the country. In May the government passed a Kremlin-style law branding civil-society activists who accept any foreign funding as “foreign agents”.On October 26th another election. The opposition rejected the results immediately, but protests were small and evidence of gross fraud was lacking, muting the international reaction. As reports of voter intimidation and ballot irregularities trickled in, it “became clear that the elections were stolen”, says Petre Tsiskarishvili of the United National Movement (), the main opposition party. But many thought Georgians had grudgingly accepted ’s victory. It turned out the reaction was simply delayed: with protests spreading from Tbilisi to the cities of Batumi, Poti and Kutaisi, much of the country of 3.7m people is in revolt.The trigger has been the government’s apparent decision to turn away from the West. On November 28th the European Parliament passed a resolution declaring that the elections had been “neither free nor fair”, and called for new ones. Irakli Kobakhidze, Georgia’s prime minister, denounced the measure as interference in Georgia’s internal affairs. He froze negotiations on Georgia’s membership at least until 2028 and said the country would refuse to accept the bloc’s budgetary grants. Vladimir Putin welcomed the suspension, praising ’s “courage”.America, in turn, suspended its strategic partnership with Georgia. The Georgian move represents a deliberate break with the West, says Kornely Kakachia, head of the Georgian Institute of Politics, a think-tank in Tbilisi: “[Georgian Dream] no longer wants the ’s conditionality. Instead they aim to consolidate power and lean towards illiberal states like Russia, China or Iran.” Mr Ivanishvili has tried to frighten Georgians by invoking the Ukrainian example, warning that a move towards the West would provoke Russia to attack the country again, as it did in 2008.Such fear-mongering has not kept Georgians from protesting. The interior ministry says that 113 police officers and other employees have been injured. They have responded with an iron hand, using tear gas, water cannon and rubber bullets. Hundreds of protesters and journalists have been detained, as have opposition politicians. Zurab Japaridze, a liberal leader in the opposition Coalition for Change party, was arrested at a demonstration on December 2nd. The Georgian Young Lawyers’ Association, a legal watchdog, accused the Ministry of Interior of “committing a crime” with its tough response.The protests are unlikely to simply dissipate, but they lack a clear leader. The only consolidating figure is Salome Zourabichvili, the president, whose powers are largely ceremonial. She has come out on the side of the protesters. Mr Ivanishvili wants to replace her with Mikheil Kavelashvili, a footballer, when her term expires later this month. But on November 30th Ms Zourabichvili said she would not step down unless new parliamentary elections were held; the next president is to be chosen by parliament, but she says the current one is illegitimate.Though Georgia is in full-blown crisis, within the state itself defections have so far been confined to the resignations of several ambassadors and mid-ranking officials. There are no signs of disloyalty among the police, and the -trained army has stayed in its barracks. firmly controls the state broadcaster, and uses it to influence voters’ opinions in the countryside.“It’s a mystery to us why” the government has made such an open anti-European move, says one Western diplomat. “But I don’t believe this is a miscalculation on their part. They are very deliberate and understand the dynamics.” The protests do seem to have unnerved Mr Kobakhidze. In a confusing press conference, he insisted that negotiations had not been “suspended” (he seems to prefer the word “delayed”), and said the government would “spare no effort”’ to secure membership by 2030. That is unlikely to placate the crowds.Yet for all the echoes of the Maidan protests, the Georgian government seems far more secure. “Police seem happy to play the same game every night, dishing out beatings with seeming impunity,” notes a Western observer in Tbilisi. There is “no indication that [Georgia’s leaders] intend to change direction”. And for many Georgians, any similarities to Ukraine are reasons not to hope, but to worry.