What America’s next recession will look like

These days it is hard to turn a corner without bumping into predictions of an American recession. Big banks, prominent economists and former officials are all saying that a downturn is a near certainty as the under control. Three-quarters of chief executives of Fortune 500 companies are braced for growth to go negative before the end of 2023. and consumer surveys are flashing red. Google searches for “recession” are soaring.The track record is certainly ominous. As Larry Summers, a former treasury secretary, has observed, whenever has risen above 4% and unemployment has dipped below 4%—two thresholds that, when breached, indicate economic overheating—America has suffered a recession within two years. It is well across both thresholds now.