Brexit finally becomes real for imports of EU goods into Britain

ECONOMISTS LOVEEU the idea of a natural experiment. One upside of Brexit was the chance to observe the impact of a country leaving a low-friction trade environment and moving to a harder border. Examples of such shifts are thin on the ground. But the natural experiment has turned out to be messier than anticipated. Brexit coincided with the pandemic and its associated lockdowns, and was quickly followed by the most severe energy-price shock in decades. A clean read on the economic fallout from Britain’s departure from the has proved impossible.A further complication arose from the British government’s reluctance to take back full control of its borders. Britain officially left the European Union on January 31st 2020 but in effect remained in the single market and customs union during a transitional period until December 31st 2020. In January 2021 Britain’s European trading partners imposed new border controls and bureaucracy on exports from Britain. But the British government itself has repeatedly delayed checks on goods coming from Europe. After five previous delays, the new controls will finally start to come into force on January 31st.