Do cheaper commodities herald a recession?

in Ukraine throttled a flow of raw materials that was already being restricted by logistical logjams, bad weather and other disruptions. The result was soaring prices. In March a barrel of Brent crude oil hit $128, and European gas prices were three times higher than they had been just two months earlier. Copper, a trendsetter for all industrial metals, hit a record price of $10,845 per tonne. Wheat, corn and soyabean prices rose by double-digit percentages. The surge turbocharged consumer-price inflation, which, by challenging central banks’ credibility, has given them another reason to raise interest rates. Yet in recent weeks the wind has changed. Oil is trading at around $100 a barrel. Copper has dropped below $8,000 a tonne for the first time in 18 months; metals in general have fallen by 10-40% since May. Agricultural-commodity prices are back at pre-war levels. (Europe’s gas prices, which have continued to rise as Russia has cut supply, are bucking the trend.) The slide may fuel hopes that inflation will soon be defeated. But the victory might prove hollow—if there is one at all.