American inflation tops forecasts yet again, adding to recession risks

upside surprises in inflation occur with such frequency that surprise is probably the wrong word for them. So it was with America’s for June, published on July 13th. It soared 9.1% compared with a year earlier, marking yet another four-decade high and beating forecasts for an 8.8% increase. Still, investors seemed to be caught unawares, with stocks falling sharply after the data, adding to this year’s big losses. The pessimism in financial markets is easily understood: is forcing the Federal Reserve to press on with aggressive monetary tightening, even at the potential cost of a recession.All the more important, therefore, to understand how persistent inflation will be. In this respect the most concerning part of the latest data was not the shocking headline figure, about half of which could be attributed to oil and gas prices, which surged early in June but have since ebbed. Rather, it was the change in core prices, stripping out volatile food and energy.