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At a summitGDPEUEUEU.EUEUYour browser does not support the element. in Brussels of leaders from the European Union and the six western Balkan states on December 18th, Aleksandar Vucic (pictured), Serbia’s president, was asked what he expected from the meeting. “Nothing!” he snorted. He was sorry, he added, that it meant he would miss a church festival the next day.Mr Vucic has sounded miserable lately. Facing the latest in a series of mass protests, he may think Serbs are ungrateful. Serbia’s per head is almost 90% higher than when he came to power in 2014. In 2024 the leaders of France, Germany, China and the European Commission all visited and lavished him with praise. Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, thousands of Russians have moved to Belgrade, bringing money, talent and business. Mr Vucic has satisfied anti-Western nationalists by not imposing sanctions on Russia, while placating the West by letting Serbian companies sell arms to Ukraine.Western leaders have given Mr Vucic a pass for rigging elections, arresting activists and putting spyware on journalists’ phones. They want him to restrain Milorad Dodik, the secessionist Bosnian Serb leader, and the restive Serbs of northern Kosovo. And they want their electric-vehicle battery-makers to have access to Serbia’s huge lithium deposits. In 2022 the government shelved a proposed mine after huge protests. But last July it let plans go ahead just before signing a strategic partnership with the , and protests resumed. Many Serbs distrust the government on safety.Another safety issue has set off more protests. In November a canopy collapsed at a railway station in the city of Novi Sad that had been refurbished by Chinese companies, killing 15 people. The problem is deeper than any one disaster, says Srdjan Cvijic of the Belgrade Centre for Security Policy, a think-tank: “We have a ruling elite that has completely captured the state.”Mr Vucic constantly criticises leaders, although their countries are Serbia’s biggest investors and donors. He calls them “hypocrites” for supporting the territorial integrity of Ukraine but not, by his lights, that of Serbia (ie, by recognising Kosovo’s independence in 2008). In June he sponsored a jingoistic conference of ethnic Serbs from throughout the region. Mr Vucic says he wants to preserve peace while also pursuing a nationalist agenda. Like many right-wing populists, he hopes Donald Trump will tilt American policy in his country’s favour. Mr Trump might indeed abandon America’s habitual efforts to restrain Balkan extremists, if only for lack of interest, allowing Serbian nationalists to wreak havoc in Bosnia and Kosovo.All six western Balkan states are trying to join the But many distrust pledges to move forward as they complete their alignment tasks. “We pretend the process is a meritocratic one,” says Kristof Bender of the European Stability Initiative, a think-tank in Berlin, but geopolitics counts for more. Ukraine and Moldova abruptly won candidate status after Russia attacked Ukraine in 2022, whereas North Macedonia has been stymied since 2009—first by Greece, then by France, now by Bulgaria. Balkan people know the bloc has no real appetite for enlargement, says Mr Bender. Its reluctance “undermines pro-democracy and pro- forces and strengthens nationalists like Mr Vucic”.
