Welsh voters think their government has mismanaged public services. Rightly

Wherever younhsoecdgdpoecdnhsuk stand in the Caerphilly Miners Centre, somebody will ask you to move. The grand building, acquired by pitmen in the early 20th century for use as a hospital, now hosts a busy programme of toddler groups, social clubs, exercise sessions and Welsh-language classes. It keeps alive a tradition of working-class self-help and self-improvement, which is stronger in the Welsh Valleys than almost anywhere else in Britain.Yet the conversation, among a group of women who have finished a tai-chi class, is about private health care. Jill, a retired secretary, has already shelled out for one operation after the cancelled on her five times. She is now thinking about paying for a cataract procedure. She knows half a dozen others who have decided to do the same. If you need to drive, you have no choice, she explains.Public services are in a sorry state all over Britain. They are worst in Wales. Before the general election in July, Conservative politicians pointed to the country of 3.2m people, where Labour dominates politics at all levels, and argued that the party had messed up so badly that it could not be trusted with national power. The argument failed to land. But the Tories’ observation about Wales was correct.In 2022 Welsh 16-year-olds scored worse than their peers in England, Northern Ireland or Scotland in tests of reading and maths set by the , a club of mostly rich countries. Wales also fell behind the international averages. Few alarm bells rang in Cardiff as a result. “The performance was so low, and the reaction was so shoulder-shrugging,” marvels Luke Sibieta, who studies education at the Institute for Fiscal Studies, a think-tank.It is hard to know how teenagers in Wales are faring in other exams, as its curriculum and grading systems are distinct. But they are not impressing admissions officers. In 2023, 30% of Welsh 18-year-olds were accepted to university, compared with 37% of English 18-year-olds. The gap is widening (see chart).As the young fall behind in school, the old wait for medical procedures. In June the Office for National Statistics estimated that the number of “open patient pathways” (not exactly the same as the number of waiting patients) is equivalent to 22% of the Welsh population. In England the ratio is 13%. The Opinions and Lifestyle Survey shows that a larger share of people are waiting in Wales than in any English region, including the poor North East.One consequence is the zeal for private medical treatment seen in the Caerphilly Miners Centre. The Private Healthcare Information Network, a non-profit outfit, estimates that 7,900 people were admitted to private clinics and hospitals in Wales in the first quarter of this year, almost twice as many as five years earlier. Wales is unique in the United Kingdom in that most people who receive private medical treatment pay for it themselves. Elsewhere it is usually covered by health insurance.Other parts of the state seem to be functioning little better. Robert Jones of Cardiff University calculates that 159 out of every 100,000 Welsh people were in prison in 2023, many of them in English cells. That is higher than the imprisonment rate of English people (140 per 100,000); indeed, it is the highest rate in western Europe. Why this should be is a puzzle. Wales has a slightly lower rate of recorded crime than England.It does not help that Wales is poor, with a per head about one-quarter lower than the United Kingdom as a whole. Westminster’s formulae for spreading money around treat the country less generously than Northern Ireland or Scotland. But money cannot explain everything. In the most recent test of reading ability, the average Welsh student fared worse than the poorest quarter of English students. “We’re poorer in Wales, but even if you adjust for that, we’re underperforming,” says Tom Giffard, the Welsh Conservatives’ education spokesman.A more likely explanation for Wales’s dismal performance is policy. The country voted narrowly for a devolved assembly in 1997, and its government has gradually acquired more power. It has pursued ostentatiously distinctive policies, putting what a former first minister, Rhodri Morgan, once called “clear red water” between Wales and the rest of Britain.Some of those policies are popular or clever. Wales does not charge for medical prescriptions, and it funds social care for old people more generously than England. It was the first country in Britain to charge for plastic bags. A new default speed limit of 20mph in built-up areas, though hugely unpopular with drivers, could catch on elsewhere. But the Welsh government’s policies on public services have failed.Schools remain under local-authority control, in contrast to England where many have become independent academies. Whereas schools east of Offa’s Dyke churn out data, Welsh ones generate little for public consumption. What data is available is almost incomprehensible. “I can’t make head nor tail of it,” says Mr Sibieta, an expert on these matters. The Welsh has not subjected hospitals to targets as stringent as those in England, and has been less keen on using private providers. Health spending has been less protected from cuts.Sometimes incomplete devolution seems to be the problem. Richard Wyn Jones of Cardiff University thinks that is true of criminal justice, where Wales remains bound to the English legal system but has acquired control over things like drug rehabilitation. The result is a complicated pattern of responsibilities with nobody truly in charge.Welsh people are becoming more willing to assign blame locally, though. Earlier this year the Welsh Election Study found that 87% of people think the health service is worse than five years ago and 54% think the education system is worse. More blame the Welsh government for those failings than blame the British government (by contrast, they tend to blame Westminster for declines in law and order and the standard of living).In 2026 Wales will elect a new Parliament. Labour seems likely to face a strong challenge from Plaid Cymru, a nationalist party, and Reform , a radical-right party. If it is pushed into second place, it will snap a remarkable record, since Labour has come first in every nationwide election in Wales since 1922. And it would lead to a cheery conclusion: failure has a price.