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The finalEVZEVEVBMW EVEVBYD ICEICE EVEVEVEVEVICE EVEVICE EV EVZEVEVEVICE EV Your browser does not support the element. months of 2024 should have been a landmark moment for Britain’s car industry. For the first time electric vehicles (s) consistently made up more than one in five new cars sold (see chart 1). In 2019 that figure was closer to one in 50. Instead, the mood has been soured by a row with the government. A new zero-emission vehicle () mandate is kicking in, which requires at least 22% of each carmaker’s sales in 2024 to be s. That will rise to 28% in 2025, and again each year until 2030, when the government wants to end the sale of petrol and diesel vehicles entirely.The trouble is, quite a few companies look set to miss that target. Nissan, Ford and Renault are all well behind, according to estimates from New Automotive, a consultancy. Hyundai should just scrape by; and Mercedes are ahead. So is Tesla, as it sells only s, as do -focused Chinese brands like and Great Wall.Breaching the mandate would be pretty painful. Under the current rules, each internal-combustion engine () car sold over the limit would leave its manufacturer on the hook for a £15,000 fine. Some carmakers have started selling fewer petrol cars in response. Stellantis, which owns the Fiat and Vauxhall brands, among others (and whose biggest shareholder part-owns ’s parent company), even partly blamed the mandate for its recent decision to close a factory in Luton, though that is probably a stretch.Companies do have some room for manoeuvre. Selling lower-emission cars can pull down the mandate. Taking that into account, New Automotive reckons the effective requirement for the industry in 2024 is closer to 18%. Carmakers can also buy credits from firms which have exceeded their own target, though making legacy European carmakers hand cash to nimbler Chinese rivals might be embarrassing for the government. Still, the industry as a whole will probably sell more s than the mandate requires in 2024, so ample credits should be available.All this has left the industry understandably grumpy. Nor is it an especially good look for a government that claims to be determined to raise economic growth. Jonathan Reynolds, the business secretary, has promised a “fast track” consultation on easing the rules but insists that shifting the end-date beyond 2030 is off the table. The mandate’s core problem is that, though it has successfully nudged carmakers to make s more widely available, it has not also ensured there will be enough punters willing to buy them. Sufficient demand has been slow to materialise.Why? Britons see two main barriers to buying s. The first is cost, the top reason cited in a survey by YouGov of those considering a non- car: 54% said it was a hurdle. s are generally still more expensive than equivalent cars. But prices have fallen rapidly and should come down steeply as technology improves. New models due out in 2025, like the new electric Renault 5 or offerings from Leapmotor International, a Stellantis-led Chinese joint venture, will already be a notch cheaper. s also have much lower running costs: electricity is cheaper per kilometre than petrol. For many drivers, that pulls the total cost of s below cars.Some in the industry are keen on household subsidies to shimmy along this process. That would boost demand. After Germany rolled back its subsidies at the end of 2023, s lost seven percentage points of market share. But subsidies would be expensive and, given how quickly prices are falling, probably unnecessary. As ever-lower prices reduce the cost concern, that leaves a second worry: inadequate charging infrastructure, flagged by 44% of YouGov’s respondents. But Fiona Howarth of Octopus Electric Vehicles points out that the mandate has done a decent job of driving private investment in charging infrastructure by guaranteeing that there will be enough s on the road to justify buildout costs. Britain now has almost one charger per electric car.Maintaining adequate charging will get tougher, though. s are a much easier sell for people with driveways who can charge with power from their homes. Making sure that there is also an adequate network of chargers on streets and motorways will be vital as the roll-out continues. Public charging projects could easily get gummed up waiting for planning permission or grid connections. The government will need to watch closely, and step in as necessary.Successive governments have seesawed over whether ending the sale of cars by 2030 is realistic. The goal was initially set out by Boris Johnson, but Rishi Sunak pushed the target out to 2035. Britain’s new Labour government thinks 2030 is viable, but plans to maintain some flexibility around hybrid cars. Compared with European peers, Britain’s roll-out is near the middle of the pack (see chart 2). The clearest sign that 2030 is worth shooting for is that some countries are already not far off. Nearly 90% of new cars sold in Norway this year were electric.
