New research counts the costs of the Sino-American trade war

THE INITIAL two-year segment of the “phase one” trade deal between America and China comes to an end on December 31st. Neither country is in a mood to mark the occasion. Mutual antagonism is as fierce as ever; a new American law banning goods made with forced labour in Xinjiang is the latest flashpoint. Still, it is a good moment to take stock of the economic outcomes of the Sino-American trade war. The verdict is unremittingly negative for both countries—with one important exception.Start with the most glaring failure. As part of the phase-one deal, signed on January 15th 2020, China promised to import dramatically more from America, by buying an additional $200bn in goods and services in 2020 and 2021, compared with 2017 levels. Having long complained about China’s manipulation of its economy, America demanded that it manipulate trade flows. As it turns out, Chinese officials lacked either the willingness or the ability to get it done. China will reach barely a tenth of its purchase target for goods, according to data compiled by Chad Bown of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a think-tank. Even allowing for pandemic-related disruptions, America’s strategy of browbeating China into buying more of its wares has underwhelmed.