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HE IS KNOWNUBSGDPYour browser does not support the element.By Roger McShane, China editor, The Economist as Comrade Jianguo on Chinese social media. But this nickname for Donald Trump is not an expression of solidarity. The term means “build the nation”. Chinese netizens are referring to their own country. The sobriquet reflects a view that the new president is so bad for America that he is good for China.Some members of China’s political elite espouse a more refined version of this view. They judge Mr Trump to be intellectually incurious and, above all, self-interested. His re-election is seen as further evidence of America’s decadence and decline. That provides China’s rulers with an opportunity to push their vision of how the world should be run. But they know, too, that Mr Trump poses real dangers—not least for China’s struggling economy.During his presidential campaign Mr Trump often painted China as America’s economic nemesis and threatened to impose tariffs of 60% on its goods. If he follows through, that would knock 2.5 percentage points off Chinese economic growth over the subsequent year, projects , a bank. But it is unlikely. The threat of enormous levies should be seen as a negotiating ploy—to be taken seriously, not literally—say Mr Trump’s advisers. The businessman from New York is all about making deals.China can ill afford a trade war of any size. Since emerging from the pandemic, its economy has underperformed. Chinese entrepreneurs are disillusioned with a government that is obsessed with security, unpredictable in its rulemaking and enamoured of its own central planning. Bold stimulus is needed to revive sentiment and spending, and to reverse a slump in the property sector, which accounts for a fifth of . But China’s rulers keep disappointing investors with timid and incomplete policies.It may be that the Chinese government is saving its fiscal firepower in case Mr Trump acts rashly. But it already has plenty to worry about. The new administration in Washington will continue the policy of impeding the flow of Western technology, such as advanced chips, to China. These restrictions aim to hinder the modernisation of China’s armed forces—and to ensure that America has an upper hand in the industries of tomorrow, such as artificial intelligence and quantum computing. The measures make it harder for China’s ruler, Xi Jinping, to cultivate his own “new productive forces”, or cutting-edge technologies that he hopes will drive economic growth.If Mr Xi’s frustration grows, there is a risk that China will become more aggressive. It is already forcefully pushing its grandiose territorial claims in the South China Sea, challenging Malaysia, Vietnam and the Philippines. They, in turn, have pushed back. The Philippines, an American treaty ally, has been the most assertive of all. Its sparring with the Chinese coastguard around disputed shoals has raised fears in Washington that things could escalate out of control.Tensions are also rising around Taiwan, the self-governing island of 23m people that China claims. China is dismayed by the provocative language of its independence-minded president, Lai Ching-te. It is deploying more air and naval craft around the island. In recent years, America has increased its arms sales to Taiwan and urged it to revamp its defences to prepare for Chinese aggression. But Mr Trump has intimated that he might not send American sailors, soldiers and airmen to defend Taiwan if China attacked.It is difficult to square that with Mr Trump’s selection of China hawks, such as Marco Rubio and Michael Waltz, for top jobs in his administration. But the administration is unlikely to be tested in this way. China is not yet ready for a war that might involve America.Officials in Beijing will look for other ways to take advantage of Mr Trump’s unilateralism and his disregard for America’s friends and allies. They will try to drive a wedge between America and European countries, which Mr Trump might also hit with tariffs. And they will continue to promote China as leader of the global south, claiming to be benevolent while criticising American bullying.Some Chinese officials fantasise that Mr Trump, ever the salesman, might pursue a grand bargain with Mr Xi—one that takes in trade, Taiwan and other sources of tension. But there is so much else that divides the two countries, from China’s export of chemicals used to make fentanyl, which kills thousands every year in America, to a hacking campaign that aims to give China the ability to wreak havoc on America’s critical infrastructure.Then consider the perspective of Mr Xi, who sees China hawks everywhere he looks in Washington. A crisis seems much more likely than a deal. Any number of things might lead to one in 2025. But that was true regardless of who won America’s election.
