Blind optimism is the only bet for Britain’s Tories

In an old joke, a condemned man is begging for clemency from a king. The prisoner makes a rash promise: let me live and I will teach your horse to talk. The king agrees, giving him one year to complete the challenge. An elated inmate returns to his cell. His cellmate asks why he is so happy. “A lot can happen in a year,” he replies. “The king might die. The horse might die. I might die. And maybe the horse will talk.”Equine eloquence is in vogue in the Conservative Party. The government is in a dire situation. At the nadir of Liz Truss’s 49-day tenure as prime minister, the Conservatives bottomed out at an average of 22% in the polls, which would be a historic hammering were it repeated in a general election. Now, under Rishi Sunak, the party averages 27%, which would be a historic hammering were it repeated in a general election. The Conservatives fell into a hole a year ago. They are still in it. A combination of desperate optimism and magical thinking is the order of the day.