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Abortion was Your browser does not support the element.By Sacha Nauta, Social affairs editor, The Economist one of the defining issues in the 2024 presidential election campaign. Kamala Harris used every opportunity to warn that a Trump victory would be disastrous for women and that her opponent would ban abortion nationally. Will this happen in 2025?Although the return of Mr Trump is bad news for reproductive rights in America, he is unlikely to ban abortion outright nationally. First, passing such legislation would be very hard—the Republican party does not have the required supermajority in Congress. Second, Mr Trump has repeatedly said that even if such a bill made it to his desk, he would veto it. Instead, battles over reproductive rights will continue to be fought primarily at the state level. In eight out of ten states that held a referendum on abortion on November 5th, a majority of Americans voted to protect access (though in Florida’s case, not by enough to pass the state’s 60% threshold). In most cases this means protections for abortion access will be enshrined in state constitutions. But despite Mr Trump’s insistence that “it is up to the states” to decide on abortion policy, only half of American states allow such referendums. Governors in red states will continue to block abortion access. Politically astute Republican politicians will reframe “bans” as “guardrails” or “safety limits”, recognising that harsh bans are unpopular: only 9% of Americans think abortion should be illegal in all cases.The most substantive fights in 2025 will probably take place in courtrooms. Efforts in abortion-ban states will focus on trying to stop the flow of abortion pills into such states, and the flow of patients out. And having, in 2022, returned the issue to the states, the Supreme Court may have to look at the issue again in 2025. Questions around jurisdiction over interstate travel for terminations, the availability of abortion pills and obligations around emergency provision could all return.At the federal level Mr Trump does have some levers to pull. In particular he has power over the main agencies involved in implementation of abortion-related policies. He could issue an executive order directing agencies to police access more strictly, for example by clamping down on interstate shipping, or the provision of abortion medication to minors, on the pretext of setting national safety standards.Most likely, access to abortion will continue to diverge in 2025. It is only a matter of time before someone files a wrongful-death suit on behalf of a girl or woman who lost her life because doctors were too frightened to provide the medical care she needed.
