Three big uncertainties cloud the oil market

ALMOST A MONTHOVXOPEC after Russia’s sent the oil price surging, turbulence in one of the world’s most crucial commodities markets shows little sign of coming to an end. The price of a barrel of Brent crude oil surged to $121 on March 23rd, as storm damage halted exports from a Russian pipeline. Over the past fortnight it has whipsawed from a peak of $128 to as low as $98. The pandemic-related chaos of 2020 aside, the index of oil-market volatility has rarely been higher in the past decade than it has been this month.The swings reflect the interplay between the geopolitical and economic forces buffeting the world today, from war to rising interest rates and covid-19. Even beyond the outcome of the conflict in Ukraine, there are three big sources of uncertainty for the oil market. The first is what the members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries () do as bite and Russian production is shunned. America has banned imports of Russian oil; even in countries that have not taken that step, prospective buyers are struggling to transact with the Russian financial intermediaries that have been cut off from the plumbing of global finance as a result of sanctions, and may fear fresh sanctions to come.