2023 will bring the true test of the West’s oil-war tactics

The west has been trying to cut Russia’s without causing global prices to spike since February. Both aims are seemingly being achieved at present. Russia exports as much oil as before its invasion of Ukraine, but Urals crude, the main grade it pumps, trades at a 37% discount to Brent, the global benchmark, meaning Moscow gets a poor deal. Brent, meanwhile, has fallen to an annual low of around $80 a barrel (see chart), meaning consumers face less of an energy crunch.