The message from the world’s biggest and wildest IPO

THE DRILLING of the first modern well in Pennsylvania in 1859 set oil on a path that led to the heart of economics and geopolitics. Oil fuelled the rise of the West’s consumer culture; it helped determine who won the second world war and prompted a global economic crisis in the 1970s. Over the past 20 years China has become the second-biggest consumer of crude, while America’s fracking revolution has meant it is close to being a net energy exporter for the first time since the 1950s. Now a new chapter in oil’s story is unfolding: the prospect of stagnating or falling demand as the world shifts to cleaner energy. As in the past, this era promises startling economic and geopolitical change.Consider the imminent stockmarket flotation of Saudi Aramco, which produces 10m barrels of oil a day, or 11% of the global total. As well as Arabian super-light, Aramco pumps out superlatives and controversy (see ). Worth well over $1trn, it could, once listed, be the world’s most valuable public firm, squeezing past Apple. The initial public offering has been delayed several times; a big Aramco processing plant was hit by a missile strike in September and the firm is ultimately controlled by Muhammad bin Salman, an autocratic royal with blood on his hands. But take a moment to look beyond this. Aramco’s underlying strategy is to be the last oilman standing if the industry shrinks, pointing to the upheavals to come.