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Countless policyDJDJYour browser does not support the element.By Adam O’Neal, Washington correspondent, The Economist consequences follow from Donald Trump’s victory. But the result is also deeply personal for the new president. The election was, in part, a referendum on Mr Trump’s guilt in numerous court cases against him (in May he had been found guilty of 34 counts of falsifying business records). The Department of Justice (o) began winding down federal cases against him the day after his election, and it became clear that he would not face sentencing for his existing convictions. But the first year of Mr Trump’s second term will bring a reckoning for the rule of law in America.Even before the president-elect’s legal travails captivated the nation, Americans lacked faith in their criminal-justice system. A 2024 Gallup survey found that only 21% had a “great deal” or “quite a lot” of confidence in the system, down from 34% in 2004. The intensity of this distrust will grow in 2025. The tragedy of the 2024 election is that either outcome would have led to profound cynicism on the other side.Politicians have faced the possibility of being sent to prison throughout American history, typically over corruption, but presidents had largely avoided the vagaries of being investigated by law-enforcement officials while in office. Richard Nixon’s downfall brought about a new era of independent counsels that could threaten a presidency. Congressional Republicans made use of that process to investigate Bill Clinton, and Mr Trump’s situation supercharged the trend of criminal investigations infecting high politics.The waters are muddy, because the cases involving Mr Trump are so varied. It seems clear that he mishandled classified documents, though the case was initially dismissed. And the business-fraud case in which he was convicted relied on a novel legal theory that may not withstand scrutiny on appeal. The whole saga has created a dangerous situation that will play out throughout 2025.How will an already dysfunctional Congress operate when matters of criminal justice are treated like partisan policy disputes? How many local prosecutors, Democratic or Republican, will try to raise their profiles on the back of shaky cases against national politicians? What does it mean if the Supreme Court and o—which have been pulled into these controversies and must make decisions that disappoint half the country—no longer command respect from most Americans? And will candidates enter political races to reduce their chances of going to jail?Those in power will see little reason to dial back tensions, on the assumption that the opposition will pursue them once it returns to office. Many are watching to see if Mr Trump has his political enemies investigated. If he called a legal truce, that could help prevent lawfare from spiralling out of control and becoming an everyday feature of American life. But, given the events of recent years, it seems unlikely.
