A changing British electorate is propelling Labour towards victory

AT THE last MPelection in 2019 Labour slumped to its fourth defeat in a row, and its worst result in almost a century. As the Tories eyed another decade in power, Labour stared into the abyss. One senior concluded that the party had “no right to exist”. Now Conservatives are the ones asking existential questions. The electoral coalition that was forged by Boris Johnson to “get Brexit done” has crumbled. Only half of those who backed the Tories last time say they will do so at the next election, which is set to take place this year.Instead, Labour is on the brink of entering office. Its poll lead—of around 20 percentage points, according to our —has hardly budged in a year. That puts the party roughly as far ahead as it was in the run-up to the 1997 election, when it last won power (and a thumping majority) under Sir Tony Blair. The polls could tighten. Voters do not especially love Labour or its leader, Sir Keir Starmer. But the electoral coalition the party is assembling could be even broader than the one squandered by the Tories, fusing an urban core with working-class voters in the north and suburban voters in the south.