The Social Democrats’ surge upends Germany’s election campaign

at the UfaFabrik, a cultural centre in Berlin, cheers as the moderator reveals a new opinion poll: Germany’s Social Democrats () have overtaken the Green Party for the first time in a year. It falls to Olaf Scholz, Germany’s finance minister and the ’s candidate for the chancellery, to calm his own supporters. It’s election day that counts, he says, before proceeding to a sober discussion of Afghanistan and other themes. In a display of party unity Mr Scholz is welcomed by Kevin Kühnert, a leftist former leader of the ’s youth wing who for years was a major irritant to the party’s centrist leadership.The ’s late surge has become the biggest story in the most volatile German campaign in living memory. ’s statistical model finds a 33% chance that the will take first place in the . Two weeks ago the number was just 1%. On August 24th Forsa, a pollster, placed the ahead of its senior coalition partner—the conservative Christian Democratic Union ( ) and its Bavarian ally, the Christian Social Union ( )—for the first time since 2006.