Loading
SOON AFTERspdcducsuspdspdmpspdcducsucducsuspdspdmpSPDcducsucducsuspdspdspdspdspdYour browser does not support the element. Olaf Scholz defied the odds to win election as German chancellor in 2021, his jubilant party colleagues exulted over the coming “decade of social democracy”. Now he is set to fall having served barely a third of that. In the run-up to an election on February 23rd, polls give 16% to Mr Scholz’s Social Democrats (), placing them a distant third behind the centre-right Christian Democratic Union and its Bavarian ally, the Christian Social Union, or / (31%), and the hard-right Alternative for Germany (20%). Germany’s economy is in the doldrums, war and uncertainty stalk the land, and voters are anxious. Yet as the prepares to anoint Mr Scholz its candidate on January 11th, the chancellor’s camp think their man can pull it off again. “It’s going to be hard but there’s absolutely a chance,” says Dorothee Martin, an from Mr Scholz’s home town of Hamburg.The case proceeds like this. First, consider the previous election. Written off in 2021 as he is today, Mr Scholz executed a perfectly pitched campaign and led the to overcome the /’s double-digit lead in its final weeks. Where pundits see only opinion polls, argue Mr Scholz’s aides, he retains a deeper instinct for the subterranean currents of German politics. Slow and steady wins the race.Second, look at the opposition. Mr Scholz may be the most unpopular chancellor of modern times. But his main opponent, Friedrich Merz, the / candidate, fares little better (see chart), and he is prone to gaffes. Crucially, notes a Scholz aide, the more voters see of Mr Merz the less they like him; and many are only now tuning into the election, after a snap vote precipitated by the demise of the three-party coalition in November. Anyway, say his team, Mr Scholz’s unpopularity has more to do with that detested government than his own deficiencies. Expect a personalised campaign: the cool-headed Mr Scholz v the irascible, untested Mr Merz.Third, peer ahead. The last month of Germany’s campaign will be the first of Donald Trump’s presidency, and Mr Trump will surely give voters reason to notice. A campaign now focused on wages, industry and immigration may in part turn on who can best respond to American tariffs, a proposed peace deal in Ukraine or demands to triple the defence budget. So far the campaign has been about unflashy reassurance: pay, pensions, investment and energy costs. This modest approach seems out of kilter with the scale of Germany’s challenges. But party strategists hope it will leave Mr Scholz well placed to present himself as the rock in whatever storm Mr Trump unleashes after January 20th. “Today ‘change’ and ‘progress’ sound like threats,” says Armand Zorn, an from Frankfurt. “Voters want stability and security.”Can this really work? Mr Scholz may well make up ground in the campaign; the usually does when trailing the /. Although the chancellor’s governing style is plodding in the extreme, he enjoys playing the underdog and can be surprisingly effective on the stump, notes Daniel Brössler, author of “A German Chancellor”, a biography of Mr Scholz. As for Mr Trump, to risk-averse Germans Mr Scholz’s safety-first approach could prove more appealing than Mr Merz’s more macho style. Yet for all that, the odds against a Scholz re-election look almost insurmountable. The lessons from 2021 are limited, says Peter Matuschek, of Forsa, a pollster. Mr Merz is more popular than Armin Laschet, the previous / candidate, and Mr Scholz is both better known and less liked today. Just 8% of Germans think the is best placed to manage the country’s problems. Unlike in 2021, when Mr Scholz was an electoral asset for his party, today he is a drag on its support. Seen in that light, the ’s decision to plaster his visage all over its posters may seem bold.So, for some, was the choice to run with Mr Scholz in the first place. Last year the flirted with the idea of replacing him with Boris Pistorius, the popular defence minister, whose decision to withdraw from contention in November hurt the morale of some foot-soldiers who did not relish the prospect of a winter campaign canvassing for a weak candidate. The chancellor himself appears to have inexhaustible reserves of self-belief. Someone has to: 62% of the ’s own supporters believe he will lose to Mr Merz.
