Europe looks increasingly complacent about the winter ahead

“We aregw safe for this winter. Russia’s blackmail has failed.” Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, was in a confident mood on December 12th, speaking during the first cold spell of the season. It was a confidence born of a sure-footed start to winter. It may also turn out to have been premature.The continent enjoyed a warm autumn, with October and November much balmier than normal. But Arctic cold arrived at the beginning of December, as temperatures dropped below zero in Berlin, London and Paris, prompting fears that gas supplies would be hit and electricity networks would falter. In France, each degree centigrade drop in temperature requires an additional 2.4 of generation capacity, the equivalent of an average nuclear plant.