German election diary: the SPD’s surge and the Greens’ singalong

THERE IS NO doubt about the biggest election story of the week: the Social Democrats’ . On August 24th Forsa, a pollster, put the centre-left SPD on 23%, a percentage point ahead of its senior coalition partner, the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian ally, the Christian Social Union (CSU). The lead may be slight, but it’s the first time in 15 years that the SPD has had its nose in front—and German papers are calling this a “political earthquake”. Two days later Civey, another pollster, placed the CDU/CSU and the SPD level, on 22%—but the conservatives were estimated to be losing ground while the Social Democrats are gaining.__________The SPD’s climb has shortened the odds against , the party’s candidate, succeeding Angela Merkel in the chancellery. (Our gives the Social Democrats a one-in-three chance of becoming the largest party in the Bundestag.) Mr Scholz, who used to run the city-state of Hamburg, may not appeal to the left of his own party, and his flinty style doesn’t exactly set the pulse racing, but as federal finance minister he has done little to frighten conservative voters. That is further bad news for the CDU’s Armin Laschet, whose lacklustre performance does as much to explain the centre-right’s droop as any charm of Mr Scholz’s. On Sunday Mr Laschet has a chance to redeem himself in the first of several television debates among the main candidates. He can’t afford to fluff it.__________