What America can expect after Donald Trump’s election

THE FIRST TCJABy Idrees Kahloon, Washington bureau chief, The Economist timeDonald Trump won the presidency, in 2016, by beating back both the Republican and Democratic establishments, was shocking. That he won it again in 2024—after losing in 2020, inciting his supporters to try to violently overturn his loss, then keeping control of his party while weathering 90 or so felony indictments (with convictions on 34 of those counts), two assassination attempts and one switch-up at the top of the Democratic ticket—is utterly surreal. Only one previous president, Grover Cleveland, managed to return to the White House after being booted out once. That was more than a century ago.Most presidents who return to office do so without unified party control of Congress. But Mr Trump has been graced with a trifecta, with Republican majorities in both the Senate and House of Representatives. This gives him, once again, the chance to pass legislation rather than merely flexing the powers of executive authority. His victory also brings relief from the lawsuits that have dogged him. And he will be tempted to seek retribution against his political enemies.Mr Trump squandered much of his political capital in 2017 pursuing a repeal of the Affordable Care Act, known as Obamacare. His signature achievement, actually shepherded by his congressional allies, was a major tax cut known as the . Many of the important provisions of that bill will expire at the end of 2025, requiring a new bill to either extend or revise them. Mr Trump has pledged a variety of tax giveaways which would collectively cost trillions over the coming decade if enacted. All this will need to be resolved in the giant tax bill to come. Mr Trump may look to cut clean-energy spending, approved by Democrats, as a way to fill some of the revenue gap.It will not be a comfortable time to be a bureaucrat. Mr Trump’s animosity towards the “deep state” has hardened in his time away from power; his allies have prepared plans to eliminate those they consider to be conspirators and doubters. He will use his executive fiat to overturn Joe Biden’s executive orders on environmental limits. He will issue sweeping executive orders on immigration, aiming to “shut down” the southern border and limit asylum. Having pledged sweeping tariffs on China, Mr Trump will be swift to show he means business, perhaps by invoking national-security authorities to implement them without specific congressional approval. All this will be challenged in court. For all the storm and stress about Mr Trump’s return at home, his first year could be even more consequential abroad. Under Mr Biden, America was one of the chief sponsors of Ukraine’s defence against Russia’s invasion. Mr Trump pledged to settle the conflict after his election, even before he was inaugurated. Further military aid from America is unlikely to be forthcoming, pushing more of the burden onto the Europeans. Although Mr Trump is hesitant about traditional war, he is keen on trade wars. So he is likely to intensify Mr Biden’s policy of export controls on sensitive materials, such as the advanced chips used for artificial intelligence, alongside a bevy of new, punitive tariffs. This will be Mr Trump’s final term in office. He may consider what his legacy will be, beyond just beating his political enemies at home and disengaging abroad. After remaking the Republican Party from within—into a nativist, protectionist party, sceptical of military adventurism and indeed of broader American involvement overseas—his victory ensures that this ideological transformation will be enduring. J.D. Vance, the new vice-president, aged 40, is the heir apparent to the Make America Great Again movement that has taken over American conservatism, provided he can stay in Mr Trump’s good graces. Wherever Mr Trump takes America in the next four years will be felt for decades to come.