Can Europe arm Ukraine—or even itself?

WARS OF ATTRITIONRUSI, which is what large-scale conflicts between militarily sophisticated adversaries such as Russia and Ukraine tend to become, are usually decided by which side has the better arms industry. Russia’s economy is nearly 14 times the size of Ukraine’s, but the combined resources of Ukraine’s allies are so much greater that it should be able to win. Yet as the conflict enters its third year, it is Russia’s defence industry that is slowly turning the war in its favour.Nothing shows the problem more starkly than . At the height of Ukraine’s summer counter-offensive, it was using some 7,000 a day, significantly more than the Russians. This has reversed: since last month, while Ukrainian forces have been rationed to 2,000 shells a day, the Russians have been firing five times that number. The West now faces a choice, said Jack Watling, an expert at , a think-tank in London, earlier this month. It can give Ukraine what it needs, “or cede an irrecoverable advantage to Russia”.