A divergence in consumer surveys adds to recession worries for America

AMERICANS HAVE much to like and much to dislike about the economy these days. Thanks to a , it is unusually easy both to find work and negotiate a pay increase. At the same time, have taken a bite out of their earnings in real terms. To get a handle on how people perceive these opposing trends, analysts can look at surveys that measure consumers’ sentiment about the economy. There is, however, a problem at the moment. Like the contradictory trends, the two main surveys are presenting different pictures.The first is a survey of consumers by the University of Michigan. Started in 1946, it is respected as a leading indicator of whether Americans are planning to spend money or tighten their belts. As such, it is looking grim. The preliminary reading for April was near its lowest point in more than a decade—and, crucially, was 26% lower than its level a year earlier. Falls this sharp are often associated with recessions.