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Generations of ItaliansNATONATO EU NATOEUMAGA EUMAGAMAGAEUEUGDP NATO EULuiss EUEUEUYour browser does not support the element. have flocked to America in search of opportunity and enchantment. One recent arrival to New York, albeit only for a short trip in September, looked like she had hit upon both. Giorgia Meloni, the Italian prime minister, found herself feted in unique style at a glitzy ceremony on the sidelines of the annual United Nations confab in Manhattan. Bestowing an award upon her was none other than Elon Musk, a peddler of electric cars, rockets and political influence. The world’s richest man declared Ms Meloni “someone who is even more beautiful on the inside than she is on the outside”, among other compliments. Reciprocal flattery ensued: Mr Musk is a “precious genius”, apparently. Pictures of the two staring deep into each other’s eyes soon had tongues wagging. It fell to the entrepreneur’s mother to pour cold water on the rumours: Musk had been accompanying her son and could attest he had returned to his hotel alone that night.Ms Meloni is back in Europe now, while Mr Musk can at times be found at Mar-a-Lago, the Floridian lair from which Donald Trump is preparing his return to the White House. His second term is the cause of much anxiety in Europe, a place that depends on America for its defence (through , but also by ensuring the flow of weapons to Ukraine) and flogs it lots of cars, handbags and other European trinkets. Awkwardly for Europe, Mr Trump says he wants to end the war in Ukraine “within one day” (pesky details to be confirmed), thinks of as a ploy to bilk America and loudly promises to throttle imports by means of tariffs. Desperate for a “Trump-whisperer” to soften the blow, Europeans are scouring their ranks for someone to rein in the mercurial president, should such a thing even be possible. Ms Meloni has perhaps the most credible claim. But getting closer to America could jeopardise more important relationships with her peers.Two groups of Europeans are jostling for Mr Trump’s affections. The first is the continent’s old guard—the leaders of France, Germany and Poland, as well as grandees of the European Union and —who have traditionally handled the European end of the transatlantic relationship. Though they may privately loathe Mr Trump, all think they have an “in” with him. (France’s Emmanuel Macron, for instance, was already in office for part of Mr Trump’s first term and will host him in Paris to unveil the renovated Notre Dame cathedral on December 7th.) But that group is in precarious shape. Mr Macron presides over the most chaotic political scene outside the Korean peninsula; Germany’s Olaf Scholz will probably be ousted in February; Poland faces divided government, at least until presidential elections in spring. Only the ’s institutions have stable leadership. But Mr Trump views the bloc—the apotheosis of globalist norm-setting—with contempt.The second group of Trump hopefuls are his ideological chums. Viktor Orban, the Hungarian prime minister, has cultivated ties with the movement (he promises to Make Europe Great Again, details also to be confirmed) and publicly backed the once-and-future president’s candidacy. Alongside others who share his autocratic bent, such as Robert Fico of Slovakia, he has swept aside checks and balances in ways Mr Trump can only aspire to. But for that very reason Mr Orban would make for a wobbly liaison between the and America: influential as he might be in Trumpian circles, he is not trusted by anyone in Europe. If he is a bridge from the right, it is a bridge to nowhere.Ms Meloni in contrast finds herself with a foot in both camps. She hails from the hard right, and can bash migrants and “woke” types with as much aplomb as anyone at a Trump or Orban rally. Beyond her ties to Mr Musk, for years she was cosy with Steve Bannon, a ideologue (though he has since denounced her as a turncoat pro-globalist, and his allies now dub her “phoney Meloni”). In power since 2022 and not facing elections for another three years, Ms Meloni has adroitly managed to stay in the mainstream. Unlike others in her political camp, she has supported Ukraine to the hilt. Far from picking fights with Brussels, she has gone out of her way to appear a constructive partner. Mr Trump is likely to have his share of gripes with Italy, which does two things he considers reprehensible. The first is to ship too many posh loafers (among other things) America’s way; Italy is the ’s second-biggest goods exporter to America after Germany, and buys comparatively little from there. The second is to scrimp on defence. Italy spends a mere 1.5% of on its armed forces, well short of the 2% target agreed a decade ago by allies. Ms Meloni faces a balancing act: how to benefit from her proximity to Mr Trump without alienating existing allies. In the past, being on good terms with both Europe and America was compatible. Soon it may not be. “The meaning of what being a good transatlanticist is could change fast,” says Lorenzo Castellani at University in Rome. On Ukraine, Ms Meloni may find herself having to choose between Mr Trump’s “plan” and one favoured in European capitals. Mr Trump has tried divide-and-rule on the in the past, for example on trade. It may prove tempting for Italy to align with the new establishment in Washington if, in return, Parmesan cheese would face lower tariffs than, say, Gouda.Ms Meloni’s Italy could end up as a sort of swing vote, a large country with the ability to sway the bloc in line with Mr Trump’s world-view. But only up to a point. “Giorgia Meloni has a lot to lose picking fights with Brussels,” notes Riccardo Alcaro of the Institute for International Affairs, a think-tank in Rome. Italy has high debts and tepid economic prospects, and it benefits from funds as well as implicit guarantees on its borrowings. Ms Meloni may have a new friend in Washington, but she will need to stay on good terms with her old ones closer to home.
