The Bank of England should not raise interest rates until 2022

BRITAINISUNIQUELYGDP exposed to the malign forces troubling the world economy. It gets two-fifths of its energy from natural gas, which is in short supply. Trade flows are worth more than half of its , making bunged-up supply chains particularly painful. Brexit has exacerbated its labour shortage and disrupted trade further. It even has a high rate of covid-19 infections, posing a lingering threat to consumer confidence, though more than 90% of the population has antibodies against the disease.Could a central-bank mistake soon be added to the list of problems? The Bank of England has encouraged markets to expect interest-rate rises sooner than in other big rich countries. In mid-September investors began betting that interest rates would start rising in December. This week comments by Andrew Bailey, the bank’s governor, led traders to place about an 80% chance on a rate increase on November 4th. Our reading of Mr Bailey’s remarks—which, admittedly, were imprecisely worded—suggests that the markets are getting ahead of themselves. The governor has promised . And yet the bank has not disabused bond desks of the notion that a series of rate rises is imminent.