The bloodshed in Gaza is set to rage through Ramadan

FOR WEEKSIDF America has bet that a in Gaza could be agreed. The implicit deadline was Ramadan, the Muslim month of fasting. Now Ramadan is starting—and there is no sign of a cessation of hostilities between Israel and Hamas. As a result the Gaza war is entering an unpredictable new phase. The level of violence could subside, but there are scenarios in which it might to the West Bank and the wider region. Of particular note are three potential flashpoints: the al-Aqsa mosque in Jerusalem; the humanitarian crisis in Gaza and whether Israel extends its campaign to Rafah, Hamas’s last major enclave in the strip’s south.The ceasefire talks appear to have gone nowhere despite multiple rounds of discussions and American pressure. Perhaps three-quarters of Hamas’s fighting capability has been damaged. But the rump of its forces, led by Yahya Sinwar, who is probably holed up in southern Gaza, are reported to be holding out for maximalist demands. In return for a staggered release of Israeli hostages, they are said to be seeking a permanent cessation of fighting in Gaza by the Israel Defence Forces () and potentially a complete exit by it from the enclave, among other things. For Israel and probably America too, that is a non-starter.